I suspect my portfolio is a tad more modest than yours, and I...

I suspect my portfolio is a tad more modest than yours, and I was allocated enough in the float for it to be a meaningful portion of my investable capital. I also bought some more at the issue price mid last year, which I guessed was investors realising their stag profits.

I've only had a fairly superficial glance over the half year accounts, but I agree with your comment regarding internal/external factors.

I'd factored the majority of MPL's profit growth over the next few years to come from higher gross margins as a result of improved claims management, aided to a lesser extent by modest revenue growth (i assumed 5%) and minor improvements in MER. My (overly conservative) forecast, was it would take MPL 5 years to achieve a gross margin of 14.85% (for-profit PHI average), with upside potential if they could achieve top quartile GM of 16.4%. My optimistic 5 year forecast has been achieved in one! haha. Well done, MPL Board & Management.

So, no issues with the public to private cost efficiency story, that's tracking just fine. I am, however, worried about my 5% p.a revenue growth assumption. Increasing lapse rates, decreasing acquisitions rates, switch to lower cover/cost policies, a revised submissions for a rate increase, a potential price war with other PHI's - It all points to stagnating, maybe even falling revenues to me. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic? After all, I am ignoring the positive macroeconomic factors ie a growing, ageing population. I just feel though, that in the near term at least, the risk is on the downside.

I'm a bit torn on MPL. Overall I still like the fundamental business model, so for a lack of a better investment opportunity I'll probably continue to hold.