I think where we differ is our confidence about the percentage...

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caesius

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29/11/16

11:41

Post #: 20958377
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Originally posted by Father ted ↑

Also I didn't mean to sound like I am having a go at you two guys, just trying to say it's no wonder you're grumpy about the stock, despite it tripling this year! Solg is already pushing A$600 million cap, and so dgr's holding are worth over A$80 million. A buyout for A$1 billion is overly pessimistic imo, but we're all guessing somewhat on that topic. If everything goes right from here it could be 10x that amount, (still quite a large IF.)

Now what % of a buyout becomes a dividend for dgr holders? This is a very big unanswered question. I don't think the Orbis deal will be a very good guide, or I hope not. That deal happened at zzz-o'clock on the resource market clock, - near the bottom of the market - where it was a smart time for dgr to plow the money into the subs rather than cash out. (And for instance they have 3x as many solg shares today thanks to that smart move.) Solg buyout will happen at a time where it's more appropriate to kaching, and especially with competing suitors pushing the bids up to a more cycle-independent price. Also, as promising as the other subs might be, they aren't going to find another project as awesome as Cascabel. If you win a million bucks in Tattslotto, you don't run out and buy a million bucks worth of Tattslotto tickets with it. This is their Big Score, and I would expect them to take the money and run, for the most part (i.e. pay a very big dividend.)

So despite their ambitions for dgr, I would still expect them to payout ~+3/4's of any solg buyout as a dividend. (Based on not much, to be sure.) If they payout only 50% then that would be a dividend approximately equal to the shareprice, given the anomalous undervaluation we see these days. This undervaluation could be attributed to uncertainty/pessimism about what % would likely be paid out. It's a topic the company itself might like to address.?

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I think where we differ is our confidence about the percentage of SOLG that would be paid out. In my head it would be similar to ORB, with the lion's share being "reinvested into growth" (perpetually).

But you make valid points, especially regarding plowing ORB profits into SOLG. I'm watching from the sidelines. Still not feeling positive by the whole affair. But we will see.

Cheers

DGR Price at posting: 8.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 2.2¢		Change -0.001(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $21.91M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
2.2¢	2.5¢	2.1¢	$110.9K	4.914M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	897812	2.1¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.3¢	373457	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	31358	0.022
5	897812	0.021
4	1115000	0.020
4	296500	0.019
2	345000	0.018

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.023	401897	3
0.024	364444	3
0.025	750000	2
0.026	454545	2
0.027	388877	2

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I think where we differ is our confidence about the percentage...

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