Hi Richard,
as to last results and why the SP didn't move, remember, the markets are forward thinking.
This has two implications here. Firstly, there was no reason for the markets to believe that further Australian trials would be much different from previous trials. Thus investors and speculators had already factored this in. Consider if the company announced another 1500 patients to be trialed in Australian hospitals, would you expect buying in the lead up to these results? Of course not, because the market already knows that Aus trials have been successful, showing they are successful again is not helpful. Now, the slight difference between these last trials and the previous trials is that these mimicked the US trial procedure. Again, to a degree, the market has factored the US trials to be successful too. But this leads to my second point, the forward thinking market is no longer interested in Australian trials, what matters are the US trials.
When posters get concerned that there is no SP momentum, remember, RAP is valued at 225 million. There are plenty of ASX companies, turning a healthy profit, with market caps smaller than this. That means speculators have already generously valued a company that has negative revenue. This should actually give you some confidence, not concern.
Sure, once the product is fully developed, and commecialised, it will be worth many multiples of where it is today, but the market will never treat a company as if it had 'already made it'.
Reasons why the SP has not been slightly higher in anticipation of revenue are varied.
For a start, the journey has taken longer than expected. Those of us here in 2015 know that the companies initial time frames were way too optimistic. I have been critical of this at times. The fact is, investors that like to make 100% on their investments could easily have done this many times over in the last year on various other ASX stocks. No, they are not traders, just short to medium term investors. Many, have taken initial profits, and made many multiples of those profits on other stocks. No doubt, they always have an eye on RAP, and many will return, probably from here on.
Also, FIL, a blessing and a curse. I have no doubt about two facts here. Without FIL, in the last 7 months, we would have seen the SP at 50c+. But also, without FIL, we would most certainly have seen the SP in the teens. FIL, have capped the SP. We know this as fact as we can see their selling. They have also created a floor for the SP, soaking up anything in the 29 - 30c range.
Be thankful, as FIL's presence, has killed this stock as a day traders play thing. I made great money on RAP late 2015, early 2016 trading the crap out of it. When FIL showed up, it became harder to pick and ride the swings.
looking forward: RAP, fully developed and commecialised, circa 2019 - 20120, who knows, it could be a 100 billion dollar company (if not bought out).
lookimg a little closer, you can be certain, that FDA approval, for one diagnostic application of the app, the commercialization is a guaranteed. Remember, all the US results need to show is that RAP's tool is 'statistically similar' to a stethoscope to get approval.
So, results out within 4 weeks, if strong positive, then 120 days later we can be sure of FDA approval.
To me, the catalyst will be the US results, because if they are hat we hope, then FDA and commercialization is a forgone conclusion. At present, the only 'risk' are the US results. Good results eliminate pretty much all risk, and this becomes a risk free company. Now, with any risk free company, the rewards become minimal. That means, by the time it's risk free, the SP will be high enough that you may as well stick your money in CBA or the like.
I know I threw out a silly number of 100B above, but without trying to get silly and crunch numbers per coughs etc, consider, the App being commercialiesd for one disease diagnostic application.
I don't think it's unreasonable to say profit of 100 million is possible (again, not fully developed, that will take a few years, if ever, as it will constantly evolve)
There are plenty of blue chips now paying dividends of circa 1% of SP. using this metric, 100m profit would value ResApp at 10 Billion. You would be looking at an SP over $10.
Now be extremely conservative, and divide my figures by 10. We can easily achieve $1/S.
All hinges on these results. In 4 weeks we will know were we stand.
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