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I agree but the market has spoken. The market is always right...

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rony18

4,061 Posts.

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07/07/16

11:16

Post #: 18213649
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Originally posted by Wise_One ↑

There is a lot of panic in RAP shareholders at the moment. A lot of this panic is unjustified and then there are a lot of people scaremongering (i.e. Motley Fool etc) to try and create an impact on the SP.

Let’s take stock of what RAP is about to embark on.

RAP is about to announce its foray in to the US hospital market by the commencement of the clinical trials to supplement their FDA submission for pediatric use. This will take place in 2 of the US top-10 pediatric hospitals creating immeasurable interest in the company across the country as it will generate significant media attention from both hospitals it has partnered with.

We know the tech works in both children & adults at extremely high success rates. We also know it works outside Australia as the initial studies were in Indonesia and it was a success.

We are also looking towards:
- Update on WHO partnership
- MOU with telehealth partners
- Global expansion
- FDA submission

So then we take a step back and think – has anything changed since the announcement of the adult trial success in late June.

The only events which have transpired are:

- A slight delay in the US pediatric hospital trial announcement / commencement (This was supposed to occur by 30-June & now it has been pushed back to July)
- Release of 55m shares from Escrow (2-July)

Now thinking rationally about the investment thesis in RAP & taking in to consideration the events which have transpired since 21-June (ann of Adult results) we can conclude:

- There was some initial disappointment selling 29-June to 1-July when it became clear the 30-June deadline was going to be missed
- The Huge Volumes since escrow shares have been released (15m over each of the last 3 days + 25m today - cols over ASX & CHI-X) have been the escrow holders selling some of their shares, coupled with some panicked shareholders selling because 'the sky is falling' in their minds and stops getting hit.

Am I happy to see the RAP component of my portfolio down over $400,000 in 2 weeks, no I am absolutely not. However, I understand why there is selling and it is natural in the course of recycling the shareholder base from old to new hands.

The current price is an absolute steal as all the hard work has been done & the clinical trial risk (i.e. the risk of the technology working or not) has been completely mitigated with over 90% success rates in adults & children across multi-jurisdictions.

Today may be the final day of the escrow dump as the volumes are significantly larger than the preceding 3 days as there was c. 25m shares traded in the first hour!

Make no mistake, nothing has changed in my mind from an investment thesis perspective & the ride back to all-time highs will be a lot smoother & faster than last time as we have already been there and this time we are going there with shareholders that have a higher cost base.

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I agree but the market has spoken. The market is always right and we are.just pawns.

RAP Price at posting: 24.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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