As a RAPper from the start, I am extremely excited about what the company has achieved in its 12 months since inception & more so about what is about to come as we have rounded 3rd base & headed for the home straight.
A quick recap for those new to the stock:
- The tech works in children
- The tech works in adults
- The tech provides a more accurate diagnosis than the current 'gold standard' of care and more importantly, is correct in 98% of cases where the initial diagnosis by a physician was incorrect! (I.E. Of the occasions when the doctors got it wrong, the app proved to be correct 98% of the time)
Where we are at this point in time?
- The Australian paediatric trial across 2 high quality hospitals is ongoing
- The Australian adult trials across the same 2 hospitals is ongoing
- We have an active engagement with an unnamed 'WHO' (World Health Organisation) to conduct trials for the tech in the 3rd world
- We have just commenced naming the US Hospitals for the Pivotal US study (Mass-General - Arguably THE BEST HOSPITAL IN THE US)
- There is an enormous level of interest in the RAP tech from Technology Providers (Apple, Microsoft), Telehealth Providers, Health Insurers & Big Pharma. These 4 groups arguably consist of the largest companies in the world with some of the largest cash stockpiles in the world
- We are actively pursuing European & Asian market entry
- We have an extremely strong relationship with the UQ (Uniquest) from whom the company was spun out from & where all the research is currently taking place. Note the article published on their website when the Mass-General hospital was released (http://uniquest.com.au/news/uniquest-congratulates-resapp-health-first-us-clinical-study-site)
The US Pivotal Study:
- We are engaging in potentially 4 US hospitals for the US Pivotal study. My understanding is that it is initially targeted for pediatric patients who present to the ED of those hospitals showing respiritory illness. We know the calibre of the hospitals that RAP is chasing by the first being Mass-General - arguably the best hospital in the entire United States.
- The 4 sites will be collecting data at an alarmingly quick pace given not only the size of the hospitals, the number of the ED visits but also the fact that there are 4-collecting institutions.
- My suspicion is that whichever disease is the most prevelant within the data collection will be the first FDA application lodged. (I.E. All 4 hospitals will be collecting the raw data & if say there is a statistically significant number of Pneumonia cases first, RAP will apply for their first FDA approval by way of Pediatric Pneumonia).
- The FDA is the mount everest of the phara-world. Once the FDA green-lights the app, it will go viral (no pun intended) across the remainder of the 1st, 2nd & 3rd world without the requirement of physical clinical trials in those respective jurisdictions to gain approval. They will 'piggy-back' on the due-diligence done by the FDA.
- The commencement of the US study will also generate unprecidented media attention for RAP in the largest investment market in the world - the USA! We know we are on the radars of the investment house community already with Fidelity announcing a 5% stake earlier in the week - this will just snow-ball.
Upcoming News Flow
The next 6-months will be jam-packed with news flow as the 4-hospital sites roll off their trials. I expect weekly or fortnightly market-moving announcements given the sheer number of people / institutions involved.
I see it transpiring as follows:
>> Naming of the 3 additional hospitals involved (3 x market sensitive events)
>> Interim results for the first illness, followed by the other illnesses across the US study in due course (4-5 x market sensitive announcements i.e. 1 per illness)
>> Submission for FDA approval for the first illness in children (thus beginning the 120-180 day de novo approval time line)
>> Submission for FDA approval for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th illness in children (thus having a ROLLING 120-180 day approval cycle PER ILLNESS)
>> Receipt of FDA approval for the first illness in children
>> Receipt of subsequent FDA approvals for the other illnesses in children
>> Repeat the cycle for adults
Those above 7-points are the expected news flow ONLY FOR THE US PIVOTAL STUDY. We also have:
- WHO testing & possible commercialisation/licensing agreement
- Additional results from the ongoing Children & Adult trials in Australia
- Expansion in to Europe / Asia
- Other left-field events
As you can see, there is going to be more news coming in the next 6 months than you can poke a stick at!
Institutional Investor Support
A stock, any stock, must gain significant Insto support from the broking stakeholders to go to the 'next level'. I.e. from a DT type stock to a household staple. We are well on the way to achieving an increased Insto presence on our register & hence getting the ball rolling.
Fidelity taking a >5% stake in RAP is extremely significant because it provides an additional level of validation for the tech. Their investment committee would have done significant due diligence on the tech & its potential path to commercialisation. Then decided it WAS FOR THEM. Note that having such a high quality name like Fidelity will also attract Instos of similar ilk to our register. These guys don't like 'missing out' on a good thing.
Above & Beyond the Insto support, we need to gain research coverage both here & in the US for our stock. I understand that significant work is being done by BL & TK in this respect. Also, the inclusion of RAP in Septembers ASX-300 Index re-calculation will help speed things along.
Path to Commercialisation / Monetisation
A lot of nay-sayers have been slamming RAP for the only fact that it currently earns Zero revenue & you know what - yes, that is absolutely correct at this point in time. However, as we all know the stock market is a forward looking tool which sees potential revenues & brings them forward.
To this, we have an enormous opportunity to significantly monetise our tech. I see the following potentials:
- Licencing deal to the WHO
- Licencing deal to either US Telehealth Company / US Health Insurer / US Device manufacturer or US Big Pharma
Just think how much of a first mover advantage one of these companies is going to have by doing the first deal with RAP. If the interim results for the US Pivotal Study show similar accuracy rates as the Aussie study, these guys WILL NOT WAIT until FDA approval is granted, they will act immediately as they know FDA is a given. At this point, I see an epic auction & the prize will go to the highest bidder no doubt!
Think about it like this - Apple, Samsung & Huawei are battling for the Chinese mobile phone market. We know prevalent it is in the Asian culture to prevent the spread of illness is just by looking around the streets & seeing how many Asians wear face masks. (Note this is not to catch something, it is actually the opposite - not to spread anything). In the battle ground of Device Manufacturers, what is it worth to one of these companies to buy RAP & embed the tech as an OEM feature in each device? PRICELESS
This is only one such example.
It's been a while since I've posted something significant because frankly I'm sick of all the dribble that the RAP thread has attracted lately. STers & rampers trying to push their own agenda & actually thinking that their post will have an impact on the SP...
We are on the verge of something special here team & I see many multiples of the current SP in the very near future!
GO RAP!!
RAP Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
