For mine, (for whatever it's worth); Completion of trials, and...

For mine, (for whatever it's worth);

Completion of trials, and solid results will rerate the company. If the results are as good as we are hoping, the the market will factor in FDA as a given. Lets use this as a benchmark. In the lead up to FDA presubmission, the SP climbed to 56c. That's on presubmission. So its stands to reason, that if the market are to factor in FDA as a given (and why wouldn't it, if the results are good there is no reason not to), we would at the very least, exceed 56c. My guess would be around $1.

In fact, as someone who is loaded up with shares at 4c, if good results don't catapult the SP to this level, then I will buy another large parcel, such is my confidence that a) the market hasn't (incorrectly) factored in FDA approval, and b) that approval is worth at least $1, hence a worthwhile gamble.

All that said, I am not convinced the market will rate the company much higher than this until a clearer picture is painted on either a future income stream, or a takeover bid is made, or looks imminent.

I suspect the take over offer will come first. Reason is, with FDA approval, it will guarantee a future income stream, as well as provide reassurance that the App will more than likely be capable of detecting other respiratory illnesses. This means any company looking to buy RAP out, will be far better off striking before the App is developed to its full potential. I can see a reasonable offer of 2 - $2.50 on the table to ensure shareholders are enticed.

I for one will see this as fair value. The rest of you may not, but to me it presents 60 bags. At $2.50, my capital will be able to work far greater for me in other upstarts, where it can easily do another 60 bags (at $2.50, another 60 bags is simply a silly proposition).

Now onto results timelines. As of today, it is exactly one month since the last enrollments up date (I know it came out on the 14th, but the figures it states included results up until the 10th). From memory there were 478 enrollments at that point. The announcement was pretty clear about the fact that enrollments had increased week on week, and that they were now operating at maximum locations for these enrollments. It also stated that in the last week alone, 91 patients were enrolled. Now if we assume that enrollments were increasing week on week (no reason why we shouldn't), say over the 4 weeks since, we enrolled 100, 110, 120, 130, then we would be at circa 938 patients enrolled so far, (I may be out here, but it cant be by much). This leaves around 173 patients left to enroll, and this could be done within 2 weeks.

As for analysis, somebody above has mentioned that the Analysis will be conducted slightly differently to Aus trial analysis. This may well be true, but I would be highly surprised if they don't already have some preliminary analysis done so far. For two reasons. Firstly, as the enrollments were slow initially, they would have had ample time to at least analyse a few samples, for the simple logical reason as to at least verify that they were conducting the tests correctly and that those analysing the tech at least understood how it was supposed to work. But more importantly, these hospitals are not playgrounds. These places are serious institutions. I highly doubt they would waste their time enrolling 1111 patients (diverting the time and resources of senior researchers) without ensuring that at the very least the App has a chance of correctly doing what it is supposed to. So for me, the fact that the trials are still going on, is reason enough to believe that MGH and others are convinced they are not wasting their time. This bodes very well for the outcome of these trials.

Just my ramblings, happy to be corrected on any stated facts, or challenged on any given opinion.