My apologies, I missed this thread when I last posted here.When...

My apologies, I missed this thread when I last posted here.

When I write up an involved piece on Hotcopper, I tend to first do a back-up copy and then transfer it across to this platform. Unfortunately, on Thursday night when I last posted here my computer froze up, and so it wasn't till the early hours the next day that I was able to dust off the post, after which I hit the hay.

But getting to the topic of the thread, from what I gather, the troubles faced by Getir are symptomatic of broader troubles across the home delivery space. I noticed this article several days ago about the slowdown in the segment, which suggested that supply chain issues and inflation were the chief causeof the grief:

...Deliveroo has joined the growing list of tech companies changing hiring plans due to the global economic downturn.

While the food delivery platform isn’t making job cuts, a Deliveroo spokesperson told UKTN that the company “will pause adding some roles in certain parts of the business”....Many companies in the UK tech industry and beyond have been making cutbacks due to soaring inflation, supply chain issues and global economic uncertainty.

This week Sifted reported that UK-based rapid grocery delivery startup Zapp is cutting around 10% of its workforce.Klarna, Gorillas, and a list of others that seem to grow each day have also had to slow hiring or cut staff.

The mention of Deliveroo in the above report reminded me of an argument that was relayed in one article on the subject of the delivery platforms that I came across a few months back.

The primary focus of the article was not Getir, but Getir's rivals, Deliveroo and Uber Eats, however, what I found interesting about the analysis was that it also made a mention of the likes of Super Soco and Niu in the context of these platforms.

The line of argument was curious. Basically, the assertion was that in 2019, Deliveroo quietly implemented some changes to their algorithm, which resulted in their motorcycle couriers being placed first-in-line for the delivery jobs, while the bicycle couriers were increasingly shunned.

Couriers were thus induced to swap their bikes for motorcycles, setting off a chain of events that would ultimately led to a surge in electric motorcycle sales.

If you believe the argument, the boom in e-motorcycle sales since 2019 was essentially triggered by tweaks to an algorithm.

That is if you buy the argument, and I don't find it entirely convincing.

While I don't doubt that the food delivery platforms have helped to drive sales for this company and others operating in the same space, in terms of significance, it would probably rank a fair way down the food-chain. If I was going to draw up a list of the most significant three drivers for the share price of this company, I'd put the delivery platforms in third place.

The big kahuna, would of course, be China.I've been a shareholder in this company for around a decade now, and I've been watching this forum for almost as long. Over that time frame, the one concern that never seems to fall much below the surface is the China issue.

Based on some recent developments, it would seem that management have finally starting to pick up on the significance of the issue. However, so far, geopolitical factors have been something of a ball-and-chain for the share price of this company.

After China, the next biggest driver for this company would surely have to be energy prices. There is a correlation between the oil price and electric motorcycle sales, I don't think there is much doubt about this, and to at least to some extent, Vmoto's sales figures are influenced by commodity prices.

By my reckoning, the delivery platforms would rank as a distant third.

Anyway, if I was going to try to assess where the share price is headed, I'd focus on the first and second factors.

Currently, it looks like the management are trying to diversify away from China, and there are some signs that the China tensions might be set to ease, although of course it is still early days. Hopefully, the prominence of the China issue may wane over the months ahead.

On the oil price front, however, things are less ambiguous. The current high price of oil would surely have to be feed through to higher sales. I think the strength of the oil price, which was up again overnight, should, by itself, be enough to drive sales growth higher this year.