Hi RoyE I agree completely that taking some profits along the...

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Dazedandconfused

7,385 Posts.

2018

21/09/19

08:19

Post #: 40504841
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Originally posted by RoyE ↑

Hi Eintracht
This time is a bit different to ALK's previous spectacular rally since this time it's not nearly as speculative - previously it was caused by a speculative bubble in rare earths. This time it's been caused by ALK's recent drill hits at Boda, supported by ALK's recent success at finding more resources at Tomingley near their established processing plant. Ongoing drilling success at Boda will drive the ALK share price higher, however if Boda drilling is disappointing then I would expect the price to fall. If Boda proves to be anything like Cadia (Newcrest's mine in the same region), then ALK's shares could be expected to go much, much higher - having said this, comprehensively drilling Boda will take a long time so the final outcome will take a long time to play out. The rare earth side to me is an added bonus but it's not why I hold the stock - the capital cost is so large that I've always viewed it as 'pie in the sky' stuff. Having said this, I do think recent developments in US/China relations have increased the value of the rare earth project and the likelihood that it will be developed. Shareholders should not discount the value of recent drill results around Tomingley - the plant is already there so any extra gold production will be very profitable and ALK recently published an 'exploration target' of 600,000 - 1,400,000 ozs - if they successfully find this amount (I believe they will), then Tomingley will be reinstated as a very profitable, long life and valuable mine.

Re selling, with experience I have come to the conclusion that the best way to play it is to sell incrementally as the price goes up. For example, sell 30% of your holding when the price doubles from your purchase price, then sell another 20% if it goes up another 50% etc. There is no right or wrong way (for example you may decide to sell say 25% when the price has gone up 70% from your purchase price etc), but over the years I have mucked up by not selling anything and the price has crashed and also conversely selling it all early and then the price keeps going up and up, so I've learned that selling incrementally is the best policy. Good luck and DYOR.

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Hi RoyE

I agree completely that taking some profits along the way is the better strategy. My experience in the 'market' completely turned around when I learned to average into and out of a stock. I am FA in my thinking and I only trade in order to accumulate for the long term hold.

With ALK, however, I am trying something a bit different. I am now holding my entire parcel and not touching it, until it stops rising and instead trades sideways for some period of time... only then will I take out my original capital [and keep the free carry].

I am so used to holding a stock which keeps trending down, seems to stop, then drops even further. I continue to hold, utterly mystified, shaking my head and completely disbelieving. Then ... finally it stops falling.... and then, maybe for months trades sideways. If I have the FA correct eventually it improves, but usually I have to boldly buy near the bottom to get a profit. I think ALK is the total inverse of this process.

What I have been doing is buying an extra [modest] parcel and if it makes a respectable profit taking out the capital and keeping the free carry... I have done this now a few times and almost every time I have had to pay more for the shares when I buy than what I got when I sold... strange way to make a profit .

ALK Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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