The only thing that needs to happen to make 7.8 a reality is NdPr prices moving into the range of fair economic value over the next couple of years.
This is clearly also a Chinese objective particularly given NdPr values flow directly into NdFeB, little point in building 85% dominance in both mkts and giving the stuff away for "cabbage prices".
UBS have been quite modest in their material price forecasts, unlike some, so look entirely feasible, plus they are basically forecasting a flat cost structure which will likely give them at least $2kg buffer.
UBS forecast is not so different from several other reputable ones I have from analysts close to the business, conservative if anything.
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