A key factor in rare earth pricing is the upcoming production...

A key factor in rare earth pricing is the upcoming production from Lynas and Molycorp. This new production plus some reduction in future forecast demand has softened light rare earth oxide prices and flattened the whole sector.

A big swing factor is the attitude Malayasia will take on the import of Lynas concentrates for treatment. There is strong opposition in the local areas around the Lynas plant and the government has sidestepped the issue in the short term. The latest DJ report on government attitudes was particularly opaque just saying there were no current licences and the Lynas ASX release was qualified.

If the government decides to slow approvals or even give in to the agitation around LYC the impact on non China production will be considerable and push future supply/demand forecasts towards deficit.

NTU does not need Lynas as a producer but LYC could be the stongest catalyst in share price movements.