LYC

2.72%

$7.14 lynas rare earths limited

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00Daz

317 Posts.

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01/05/19

23:20

Post #: 38363727
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Originally posted by ContraryJ: ↑

Iam very sure that there will be a boom. Before I say why I wouldlike to make a point clear. I am not invested now. Ihave no plan to invest till conditions line up to make that boom happen. If it does not happen I will be disappointed but not lose anymoney. For me making money and not losing it is what it is about.Not a love of the REO market or Lynas.Not being right or wrong on a board.If I am wrong my gain will be increased knowledge when I figure out why.

An important part of my belief is that REO is just another commodity. Many disagree most common reason is that most REO produced is already under contract. I do not even reply to this because any onethat says it does not know much about commodities. I do not care if it is Steel, oil, wheat or sugar. All commodities have a large portion of their output committed before they produce. Yes some like oil several yearsback get our of wack but this is an exception not the norm. Usually after fact it is easy to understand. For oil it was the output of US fracking was grosly underestimated and US consuption did not increase as quickly as expected after banking crisis. Producers want to make money they do not produce unless they have most of the production committed. Now for reo Lynas exceeded output and quality expectations just as the demand in key markets went soft.

So first thing is to look at primary sectors that use this commodity. What other commodities are used by these sectors. As I have said before I believe it is all types of automotive and appliances Both plug in like Washers,dyers, HVAC, vacuums and many types of kitchen products., And battery operated hand tools. vacuums etc. Sales of both of these are down. Wind is alsodown. Cars much more than Appliances but appliances are down a little as well.

Next are there other commodities used in the same market. There is Coper, Aluminum, Steel. Unfortunately these are also used in many more places. So there is no opportunity to use them as a bell weather for REO. Theywill be a great bellwether for the economy in general, that is valuable.

So we have to rely on watching autos and appliances to predict When the recovery for REO will start. Worldwide GDP will also flag this change.

All commodities are very cyclical that is why people invest in them. Cyclical products always offer a great opportunity for gain if you understand what causes the cycles, that takes work and that work load keeps me and others outof them. People that do not do the work may do OK at first but long term they lose. Same is true of stocks but the work load is not as high because we have others condensing it and giving it to us in Quarterly and annual reports. It is amazing how many do not understand these critical documents like not knowing all changes in the balance sheet cause a change in profits.Like receivables going up or down.

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I say everyone here knows that commodity prices are cyclical. So does everything else like housing. The aim of course is to buy when it is going up and sell when it starts going down.

Nobody knows when the cycle is up or down. We buy because we believe that the demand is there and the company will do well in future. And also the price is right.

if you truly have this gift of knowledge, then I say you are probably very wealthy right now. As for myself, I am no fortune teller and I believe in this company. I do not trade everyday and here for the long run.

LYC Price at posting: $1.99 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $7.14		Change -0.200(2.72%)		Mkt cap ! $6.673B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$7.34	$7.34	$7.13	$39.28M	5.467M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1546	$7.13

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$7.15	72361	6

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	25876	7.120
2	280	7.110
4	14033	7.100
2	77850	7.090
2	13233	7.080

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.150	72361	6
7.160	1420	1
7.170	10329	1
7.180	10329	1
7.190	10329	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

LYC (ASX) Chart

Rat Salad, page-55

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

Tyranna wraps up lithium drilling in Angola; says looking for other projects with different metals

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Rat Salad, page-55

Top Stories

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

Tyranna wraps up lithium drilling in Angola; says looking for other projects with different metals

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News