By Dec 2009, the standard variable rate offered by the four major banks will be around 4.5%
I base this on current fixed rates they are pushing.
I know from experience that when they are promoting a fixed rate it is because they believe the average variable rate will actually be lower than that.
Keep in mind that the direction of US rates is emulated by us but by a time lag of 9-18 months, usually around 12 months. We are always higher (sovereign risk requires that we be higher) but we follow the same direction (usually).
In other words, watch for when US rates start to rise and then know that 9-12 months later we will follow.
