We are coming into the northern hemisphere summer "Driving Season". US oil production started declining Feb 2016. Imports increasing. With the number of rigs out of action I expect US oil production decline to accelerate fairly rapidly as we move into 2017 - overseas there are less rigs out of action but still somewhat reduced number - those economies are almost totally dependant on oil - at some point even the lowest cost producers will hurt..
There has been a massive global reduction in capital investment in oil production and related infrastructure and at some point this has to change to avoid a huge production defecit.
The longer and lower oil price goes the more spectacular the recovery will be. IMO
Thats not to say the US economy is not a basket case, but at the end of the day they are still a first world country. The US dollar may tank over the next few years but that will only have a short term effect on oil price in currencies other than US$. People won't produce it if it makes no financial sense to produce - oil makes sense to produce. Oil will increasingly be sold in currencies other than USD.
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