rba almost certain to lift rates, page-6

I don't know. I think a hike in rates is far less certain now that it was a few weeks ago.

Especially after a two week, 1.25% rate cut in the US. Remember, the RBA is supposed to be looking about 6 months and more down the track with their decisions (the time it theoretically takes for a rate move to have economy-wide effects).

Another fly in the ointment is the spread between cash rates and 90 bank bill rates, which must be concerning them:-



It's these widening spreads which have caused the US and European monetary authorities so much angst, as it shows a nervousness of banks to lend to each other. Just have a look at the spreads at the start of the graph, before the credit crunch started, vs. spreads today.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if they sit pat.