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The RBA is presently miles away from QE. They still have 3...

  1. BH!
    2,521 Posts.
    The RBA is presently miles away from QE. They still have 3 percentage points of "normal" easing to go.

    As Britain has recently discovered, to its surprise and chargrin, QE only really works when you either have a strong economy or the reserve currency.

    If you don't have a strong economy, it means (almost by definition) that you have a sovereign debt. If you have a sovereign debt, but are not the reserve currency, then nobody has any real reason to buy that debt unless...it offers a good interest rate. Under QE, you offer no interest.

    The result? You have auction fails, just as the UK has recently been having with its gilts. What then happens is that the only buyer in the market is your own central bank. As they print more, the currency depreciates more.

    The problem for non-reserve currencies is that, typically, their corporates and banks have written their debts in the reserve currency, not their own. Therefore, as they print and their currency depreciates, they fund the government's debt load, but impoverish and bankrupt their companies and citizens, as they have to repay their foreign-denominated debts in depreciated currency. That way lies Argentina, Brazil, etc.

    Will the RBA, in time, move to QE? Possible, because they are of the same economic training as the Bernanke's and King's of this world (neo-classical). However, they maintain a recognition that Australia is a piddling little 2% of the world economy, so they understand better than politicians and the general public, that Australia can hardly throw its weight around the world stage.

 
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