Please find below updated AspectHuntley's recommendation for BHP as at 18 Dec 09.
Huntley's Recommendation: BHP Billiton Limited
Recommendation: Buy
Key from BHP's perspective are higher copper and iron ore price forecasts. Long term iron ore prices rise 26% to US$50/tonne and copper prices 25% to US$2.50/lb. BHP leverage pips RIO marginally given its lower aluminium exposure - for which we left prices unchanged - and its coking coal exposure which RIO lacks. We raised the long term coking coal price by 20% to US$120/tonne. Iron ore, copper and coking coal are three leading ingredients for developing world growth via urbanisation led by China. Our valuation and earnings forecasts for BHP increase substantially.
Business Impact: We increase our BHP valuation 17% to $50.80ps and upgrade our recommendation from Accumulate to Buy. Our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecasts increase 25% and 35% to $2.47ps and $3.06ps respectively. Our preference remains for the diversified resource majors for metals and bulks exposure. We think BHP remains the clear winner from a business quality perspective, but RIO outshines from a valuation perspective. At a price of $70.80ps, RIO trades at a 30% discount to valuation versus 19% for BHP at $41.05ps.
E*TRADE Broker consensus estimates are 2 strong buy, 1 moderate buy and 2 hold.
Brokers:
> Austock Securities Ltd
> E.L.& C.Baillieu Stockbroking
> Intersuisse Ltd
> Morningstar Australasia
> Ord Minnett
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Last
$41.76 |
Change
-0.900(2.11%) |
Mkt cap ! $211.7B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$42.02 | $42.09 | $41.75 | $565.3M | 13.46M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
176 | 109821 | $41.75 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$41.80 | 17792 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
173 | 108479 | 41.750 |
10 | 39186 | 41.740 |
7 | 9431 | 41.730 |
7 | 38881 | 41.720 |
13 | 9155 | 41.710 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
41.800 | 17792 | 2 |
41.830 | 3000 | 1 |
41.850 | 750 | 1 |
41.870 | 1700 | 1 |
41.920 | 5200 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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