rbs rating, page-2

I thought the $0.86 target from RBS sounded VERY conservative, so I went to their last report
http://www.alchemia.com.au/irm/content/investor_analystreports.html

The discussion about potential impact of Apicore announcement is interesting. They deal with it by reducing the probability of success to 85%. Sounds reasonable given the lack of information.

The forecast Arixtra sales are already out of date. Global sales for FY10 were actually 11% higher than RBS forecast (US$444M cf. $444M actual) and actual US sales were 25% higher (US$251M cf. US$200M). They factor in just 6% growth in the coming FY11. Sales are already above that forecast!

Despite discussing the expected release of data for OASIS 8 trials re ACS in 3 weeks and saying,

"...We estimate this indication represents approximately 30% of the LMWH. This is the final major indication to be approved and is important to drive Arixtra sales growth and
therefore ACLs fondaparinux..."

RBS doesn't seem to then include any impact of the extra indication on their Arixtra sales forecast.