rbs report from 23rd june 2011

In it's 23 June 2011 report, RBS had a 60 day target price of $2.45, but given the recent news I suspect that 60 day target may change to something like 120 days. Their timelines given below do seem to be more realistic than Lynas' optimistic case.


From the RBS report (my bold emphasis) :

"Catalysts for share price performance

With commissioning underway at Mt Weld and construction 75% complete at the LAMP facility, the near-term catalysts for LYC share price appreciation are subject to the performance of those assets and statutory outcomes in the short term.

The findings of a health and safety review are due to be handed to the Malaysian Government at 30 June. We would expect an announcement from the company shortly thereafter, which we anticipate to be positive and to remove an overhang on the stock.

LYC expects first production of saleable rare earths in 4Q11.
We are more conservative, forecasting first meaningful sales for 2Q12 (a six-month delay).

LYC expects to achieve name-plate capacity of 11ktpa within four months of first production.
We are more conservative, forecasting Stage I name-plate capacity to be achieved in 4Q12 (a six-month delay)."