Source 1:...

Source 1: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024172945

Source 2: https://idf.org/our-network/regions-and-members/western-pacific/members/indonesia/

Source 3: https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/00478589-52f4-44ac-8fee-72aedb088cfa/Clinical_Guideline_Diabetic_Foot%2BInfections_Antibiotic_Management_v1.0_.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-00478589-52f4-44ac-8fee-72aedb088cfa-p4bFZXH

Source 4: https://woundsinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/WINT-14-1_16-23_young.pdf

STEP 1 –Prevalence

1. Total cost of “drugs and medical supplies” for non-amputation DFI’s in Indonesia - 1600 AUD per patient (Source 1)

2. Prevalence of Diabetes in Indonesia - 20Million persons (Source 2)

3. Annual instance of DFU- 2%

DFU’s that become DFI’s 50%

200,000 DFI’s per year (Source 3 & 4- Based on Australian data)

Indonesia annual spend on DFI drug and medical supplies – 320 million AUD

STEP 2 - Price

Drug and medical supplies used in hospital treatment of DFI’s

1. Antibiotics

2. Topical antimicrobials

3. Wound care supplies

4. Pain management

5. Blood Glucose control

This is the speculative part. I was unable to find the breakdown of costs or the price the Indonesia government is charged for antibiotics. However, I think it is reasonable to assume it is as large portion. Let’s say Recce can receive between 100-500 dollars per patient.

STEP 3 –Market Share

	Year	Typical Market Share (General Range)
1	Year 1	0.5% – 5% (slow uptake unless a major breakthrough)
2	Year 2–3	5% – 15% (if adopted steadily and supported by guidelines/marketing)
3	Year 4–5	15% – 30%+ (if it becomes a standard of care or widely prescribed)

Source: ChatGPT analysis of several journal articles

STEP 4 -Conclusion

Revenue = (Prevalence/Market share) x Price

Revenue range

·Year 1- 100,000 AUD - 5,000,000 AUD

·Year 2-3- 1,000,000 AUD - 15,000,000 AUD

·Year 4-5- 3,000,000 AUD - 30,000,000AUD+

Apologies if there are any errors, I did this at work. I wanted to sort out once and for all, what kind of revenue prospects Recce 327 has in Indonesia. I am happy to say some of my previous criticisms are incorrect, I can see a path to a decent revenue stream all be it after several years. This is all predicated on the success of 327 and performance above current standard care. DYOR IMO