Will 10 or high 9s hold?
Yes from a weekly perspective, a decline from 12 to 10.5. But volume dying in last 3 days, today, there wasn't much.
So what is happening? After reaching 16 couple of weeks back, it has retreated for good. It is now at the level which I feel is where most consolidation may happen. Many not willing to sell here, many feel worth taking chance from here. But we had a rise in third phase (I have mentioned the phases in my previous post) from this level to 16. So many may think it may not repeat that. So some hesitance. Which I am not surprised. A few may think now I will wait for some confirmation. So we are in some state of indecision state, which was very marked today, based on volume. So what will break this? Most of the movement has been led by some big players/brokers, both up and down. I feel we can't do much and have to wait for their next move. At least from a technical perspective, till we don't get a result which will then take over the trading. But these big players mean business. I feel they are checking supply at this level. And let price consolidate. Once that happens, even without news, we may see a big play. It has happened before and can happen again. Lets see what they have in mind.
Personally I had written on Tuesday that I had bought at 10.5/11 as I feel its a fair play from here to take a risk, based on trading pattern. I bought some more at 10.5. My average now is just over 10.5. I have been in the queue at 10 for a while, but it has not yet hit. Just shows what I was thinking that not many want to get out at this level. I will continue to hold and add as long as 10 or high 9s look like holding, otherwise I will have a think.
So what could happen next week? If we get an announcement, that will take over. If not, I am thinking at some stage we will get out of this play around 11 (+/-). That was the number I had mentioned few weeks back when I had exited at 14/14.5. So its playing that way till now. Whether 10 will hold, not sure. I like the play here, I could be biased as had 3 wins before. But this consolidation to me is indicative of a another pattern playing out. Odds are not bad that we could see a move to upside, maybe not before a scare. But its probability. Anything can happen, so please dyor. I feel if we breakout this time, good chance we will get over 16.5. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
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