I like the point about Cottee clearly being an effective...

I like the point about Cottee clearly being an effective lobbyist. It really seems highly likely that he will achieve this overhaul of the mature pipelines and get them regulated.

If CTP can really knock $2/GJ off the end price of gas, that's a brilliant result for everybody except the pipeline operators. Customers obviously win, but there are two big wins for CTP:

1. CTP gets the same margin on its gas but sells it for $2 cheaper, which will increase the market demand. Alternatively, if there is still a large gas shortage and only CTP is filling the NGP spare capacity, that $2 might go straight onto CTP's margin

2. CTP can produce gas up to $2 more expensive ex-field but the buyer will pay the same price as they do under the current regime, which means a potentially massive volume of extra gas is economic to produce for CTP

The second point is potentially the most exciting because the Amadeus is a tight basin and while gas production from sunk cost existing infrastructure is fairly cheap, it's a different story if you have to pay for new wells and infrastructure too. All the 2C in the Stairway becomes far more attractive, because production becomes economic from tighter rock.

On top of that it may even open up entire new developments and fields. Ooraminna, for example - likely to be high volume but high cost due to tightness of reservoir. $2 off the supply cost could nudge it over the line into commerciality, and a large volume at a small margin is still a healthy profit.