re: a company in limbo : capman

Hi capman,

not sure there will be a significant turn around barring a good result at Flamant (fingers crossed but much more unlikely than not).

The BIG risk with HDR's share price over the next 18 months is that Ching flows will continue dropping too quickly. I see no evidence yet they've actually 'stabilised', down to 33kbpd in early-mid August. And in spite of drilling another well near year end, we won't have AH on site most of next year (in the past the sp dives when drilling ends).

How low can HDR go? Depends on Ching delines - management seem to have no idea what to expect or do not want to tell us - how much will a single new well compensate for what the decline may be over at least the next 12 months? If its bad HDR could go sub $1. So much for Potters 'positive assessments' which led me to hold rather than sell at 1.80 around the time of the AGM...

Long term buy at this price - probably, I think over 3-5 years timeframe it'll be 'ok', even then upside tempered with yet more placements.

Short term seems too risky to buy, certainly for me. I'll hold onto my still too large number of shares for some more years I suppose.

Woodie's incompetance and lengthy procrastinations have crippled HDR, setting it back 4-5 years. Lack of trust that HDR management can tell a straight story - at least some of us feel that way (maybe now including ML) doesn't help at all.