re: a superstar in the making It&e (ITE) .
Hi Copper digger m8,
Promised earlier today; .....I would put some personal assessments..... of the re-assuring calculations I have factored in... and then dicounted significantly for it&e (ITE) so please see below......
One reason...... copperdiggerm8 ..... I think it is worthwhile..... “spelling it out”...... is that the Wall of Worry” phenomena .....happened to so many of my other Long Term Holds—.......recently Marathon Resources (MTN) comes to mind—10 bagged yesterday after a wait of 19 months... however after 12 months it was 5 bags—but let me tell you; in the first 3-7 months the “wall or worry brigade”-- went spare & nuts....!!
However the Good news with (ITE) is that (ITE) is impervious to the Commodity Price Global sentiment, whether that be the Uranium sentiment, the Copper, Zinc, or Nickel sentiments or the Oil or Gold Price..... all these factors mean naught. .... for (ITE) .....
....All that matters for the (ITE) investor ....imo....., is the clear Evidence and the Competitive Sustainable Advantage of: it&e’s proprietary global Derivative and Banking & Related Market Risk Software....namely: Monarque, PTX, and the Razor which are (ITE’s) proprietary Software Applications; being sold, marketed to and supported in a Global High Growth, high ability to continue to pay a High Premium—deep pocket Market.
This is, imo, the Core issue; Nothing More and Nothing less.
So what is the it&e (ITE) Evidence and the Competitive Sustainable Advantage of Monarque, PTX, and the Razor proprietary Software Applications in a Global Market...??
1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (Worlds largest Commodity Stock Exchange)
2. HSBC Bank. (Hong Kong’s largest Main Bank)
3. KBC Bank. (In Europe --Belgium),
4. LLBW Bank. (In Europe).
5. Bear Sterns. (In Europe).
6. Fortis Bank. (In Europe).
7. Commonwealth Bank (CBA),
8. National Australia Bank (NAB).
9. Westpac (WBC).
10. Bankers Trust, B.T. --United Kingdom.
11. Macquarie Bank.
12. Qld Treasury Department.
13. Already Announced in December (this month)-- new seperate Tier One Asian Bank.
14. Suncorp Bank.
15. Zivnostekska--Gernmany & Swizerland)--Bank.
16. Brown Bros Harriman Bank in UK and USA.
17. Penison France --Insurance, Superannuation and Banking.
18. . Post Bank Germany/Europe,
19. Australian Stock Exchange (ASX).
20. ANZ. Bank.
However this is only really, on any rational assessment snd moments reflection; the "Tip of Iceberg"....
Why so...??...
Coz what do we also NOW know...???--- from the it&e (ITE) official and published “Market Up Date....” posted on the ASX --- in October.....2006. ???
**** We Know this.... ****
There are.... (On my count.... through that Document)...—... nineteen (19)—yes, correct;..... nineteen (19) – ...New ..... brand new.... fresh.... Bank/Financial Institutions – in the CURRENT (ITE) .....---....Sales Pipe Line—and that was now more than 2 months agoso there is probably more by now....
And it now gets even more reassuring and better.
It gets better now (imo) because; we now learn at the recent (ITE) AGM; that 6-7 of these Contracts are at: - “signing off stage” —in other words the choice of which VENDOR ((ITE) is now basically done...just waiting for legal department of both sides of the contracts-- to vet the contracts etc....
So forgetting the probable good percentage of the EXTRA 11-12 of the 19 being a .....will also in all probability-- get over the line – assessed conservatively based on past statistical probabilities and discounted by 30% -- even if ony 5 deals are signed off at say -- $6.25 millions each (guestimate –based on past dealings see it&e previous announced to ASX details ) – and the other 2 are at say 4 millions.... – what number do we have...??
Well that is 31.25 millions, plus—8 millions = 39.25 millions, plus say # conservative $ 10 millions for Licensee Renewals and on Going License Fees and Service Contracts—is: 49.25 millions... so let’s round that down to say $ 48 millions, and that does not account for Up-Grades or any—not one of the other eleven short-listed Proposals that (ITE) have bid for.... as of the date of the market Update to the ASX in October....
So let us then say the “Break Even”—for (ITE) ; which was 15.5 millions approx last year – 2005 - 2006 period—rises another $ 3 millions ---- (remember; it was trending down as of last year, and the AIM listing was paid for, by the small placement, so we do not have to worry about that expense, and their are plenty of offset past Tax Credits--) – we therefore have a probable approx net profit for the Full financial Year NPAT of possibly : in the vicinity of :-- $30 millions.....
Yep. $30 million net profit for full financial year...
Now PE that figure (namely $30 millions)-- out at a PE of at the very, very least : 27 ... why...???--- because (ITE) is a Growth Stock—and that would only be the scratch on the scratch going forward... because of the New reference Sites and Momentum on Sales in the United Kingdom, Europe, in Hong Kong/China and India/ Asia generally, Scandinavia (Denmark)-- (where (ITE) ahve already won significant Bank Clients)-- -- and the United States of America—and now ALSO; the New Vertical market whihc we saw evidenced in the Global and absolutely massive and very real need by the potential huge amount of State Treasury Managing Pensions and Superannuation Clients – reference the Qld Treasury Department. (see last announcement to the ASX). ...
-- In the first instance that gives you a market cap” of approx: $810 millions. ...
Okay now halve the above figure.
Yep halve it. Smash my estimate in half...
At $400 millions (market cap) approx....
Is (ITE) at a current assessed mareket cap of $30 millions still goodd value...???
Remember that is only the beginning of the beginning....imo...... .
Where are we today.... Today’s market cap for (ITE) is approx $30 millions at approx 15 cents....
When will we see these new Contracts—Highly likely 98% plus in my view: mid January-ish (after silly season).
Question: Will these new (ITE) bank Clients be Publicized to AIM Investors in the United Kingdom and in Europe...?? Answer: Yes. ... Very very much so. (I mean, why not !).
You now see, Copper digger m8,
....... where I get my “Margin of Safety” ----- hypothesis re: (ITE) from.....
Suggestion...???-- Copper digger m8,
Do, if you like, Print off this post... and go through it yourself carefully and detachedly and calmly. And then read it again tomorrow.
Then relax. And – imo--- consider to HOLD...!!
Kindest Regards,
Robbo.
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Kindest Regards,
Robbo.
ITE
i.t.& e limited
re: a superstar in the making It&e (ITE) . Hi Copper digger...
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