re: a superstar in the making Hi Go Figure,(1) The numbers I...

re: a superstar in the making Hi Go Figure,


(1) The numbers I extrapolated; were Based On anticipated Licence Fees, and not the associated Service Contracts....

So the # -$30 million NPAT figure-- was based on the Up-Front payments side-- but please note that I halved --ie: sliced a whopping 50% off the equation; to discount it right back to "reality" -- as the upside figure is just too good to factor in now...although it is tennable nevertheless, imo....

(1b) Note also; -->>>>-- I did .....not allow.... a dime --zero-- for any of the remaining 11-12 short-listed Proposals -- that (ITE) have publicly stated are now in the Sales Pipe-Lines-- (see October ASX Up-Date and subsequent presentation by (ITE) at the Annual General Meeting--also published on ASX-- )-- which -- if there was only say less than a third take up and sign off before 30/6/07--on the Up - Front Licence Fees component alone --would be a super conservative 3-4 more Contracts-- --and even if half of these were second tier-- would be an extra approx $18 millions on the Top line-over and above the figure of $48-51 millions approx I ahd calibartaed in my previous post.

And yes, this is totally ignoring and and getting the futuire royalty/Service Contract Component Revenue-- that underwrites this as well-- -- for a minute--

So yes, my figures were only based on the 6- 7 deals that are at contract signing stage....--which I emphasize and reiterate; I then..... halved..... the Bottom Line to approximate a "target Market Cap"...

(2) There will ALSO-- be a Service Fee Payments, which as you say, can only be accounted for in GAAP Accounting principles in year performed or three months either side--??-- and no doubt market will also factor that in....

(3) errrr...Go Figure-- apt name actually--!!-- .....Why wait and ponder..... for any earnings forecasts--??-- that is not how to make money in Stock Market, using a variant perception--is it...???

Of course when the entire Market Participant universe can see in Black and White ......a targeted Earnings Figure--almost 100% guaranteed to be released .....after.... a PRE - Open-- what is the point....???....

(4) My own basic..... 'thought line' .... is that if (ITE) eventualy publishes this--asked about 'forecast'-- before results-- it will be very very conserative-- to under-promise and over-deliver-- but that is only my impression of the style of (ITE) "bankers" managemnt which this co has...??....

(5) Bravura (BVA) is I think..... instructive in where you are going with your question...???-- .... with your question.... imo, we must understand that Investor markets will not look or wait for the historical figures laid down on a earnings statement-- but rather will look at the calibrated Future possibilities of future earnings if ITE consistently out flank the competition (Algorythmics and Sunguard) --in their own back yard--namely Europe and USA....--

And will then quickly assess size of global Market and discount a future valuation rather promptly from this point.

ie: Look NOT to the iniitial or next quarterly earnings statements--like an accountant might do-- instead look at valuation now, from a Finance Accounting and Investment Professional point of view.... (as it is they who who will decide on base of Fund Money--fund allocation to the stock--- thus re rating the stock)-- and how they will look at it....in the Now and Present..... as this hits her/his radar...

....This is, imo, very critical in this instance....

So what to specifically use to calculate and calibrate and assess and look for... immediately now...imo....???

(1) ...>>>> The actual Number of New Contracts... to be consumated....

(2) The Number of Renewals from exisitng Blue Chip Bank Clients.

(3) The number and content & dollar value to be calculated .....of the Up Grades from existing Bank Client Contracts.

(4) The likely 'referral effect'--- of a industry--like Banking--which is quite incestuous-- and will not want second rate technology driving its Derivatives & Risk of Currency exchange Real Time Trading engine room.... if oppostion is using something more accurate,configurable, durable, faster, powerful, robust, easier user interface, and functional.. and which gives real time assessment of Risk in a criticasl area of operation.


(3) ....The Size of the Contracts (in both up front Licence Fee Dollars--$$$--- measured in the Millions per 2- 3 year Licence and On Going Service Stream Revenue--,

(4) The signals those "deals" --will send to Investors-- with Euro and USA Bank Deals ....and how these said, and discussed ....successful NEW Bank Contracts ....will give the London Stock Investor Market and ASX Investor Market generally....CONFIDENCE-- and the CONFIDENCE effect..... that will have ....on the Global Market Share (Asia Pacific--including Australia/New Zealand and China Hong Kong & India)-- , Europe/UK, and North America -- Canada and the USA)... in a increasingly sophisticated Derivative driven Growth Market ... ..

Remeber, --of anything which does precisly fit the 'global market cliche'-- it is Currency and Derivative international Money Markets....

(5) --Any possible Take Over premium being factored into calculations... --??-- ie: into (ITE) stock price......

(6) Likely ...."lead on effect".... that once (ITE) gets a beach-head with larger New Well Known Name Bank Clients -particularly in Europe and the USA--and with Basil 11 especially now Europe-- the quick effect...... and chain reaction/momentum ....... this will have to win other Euro Banks and Financial Treasury Houses... and Pension Funds... that need various risk calibrated Monte Carlo Software to control the Risk Profiles.... (flow on from Qld Treasury is the other Dark Horse here to add a completely new Highly lucrative Global Vertical Market)-- ....

(7) Point (6) above-- is critical and Immediate in its likely IMPACT--imo--

What do you mean exactly Robbo...??

Answer: I mean, in respect to the 6-7 Contracts..... now being "signed up" (see AGM update on ASX-- as New Global Contracts in the New Markets of Europe and North America.... and what the Investor market is likely to "factor in" and get CONFIDENCE and deduce from this-- and what I mean is.... to look at Bravura (BVA)-- in how larger Investors--.....and I mean Larger Investors .....not small day traders-- will PERCEIVE and Respond to this-- in placing a Valuation on the underlying Company (ITE) future Cash Flows and Cash future Profits....

Putting it bluntly-- they (ITE) will not need a Earnings Guidance .... for brokers and analysits--- to quickly run ....."the slide rule over this".... -- as there are too may sophisticated operators in the UK and England--and with the new (ITE)-- Director..... Greg Meekings connection to Reuters and Reuters Pension Funds-- --and the effect of Smith Bayes etc etc etc.... it will be ..."all over red rover"-- once the significance of who/what/ where /how/" .... such Blue Chip perennial contracts will have...on INvestor Confidence-- .....with the European and North American Banks -- and the flow on effects..... will, imo, perculate through and up, quickly to the surface...

Inevitably when the (ITE) European Public Relations Machine -- and Media Communications have the Euro/USA Blue Chip Bank ..."STORY to Tell"-- and this swings into gear....and it hits the European public airwaves... then it will be show time-- of course the above.... is in my assessment only... and why I ahve discvounted the stuffing out of my figures!!!-- which still, imo, leaves a highly probably and calculalle High Margin of Safety--High Intrinsic Value--Growth Stock -- with all the evidences-- one could want-- quite a relatively ...imo... splendid result.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo .





Idea is to calibrate these and get in before market does the calibration...