re ann contracts update

"get out , when the analysts mark it as a buy"

@minute man,

Spot on.

And the converse also holds, namely get in when the analysts are saying sell.

Take the following classic case, namely Macquarie Bank:

Date: 16 February 2016
Share Price at the time: $5.86
Target Price = $5.95
Recommendation: UNDERPERFORM

Date: 23 August 2016
Share Price at the time: $8.99
Target Price = $8.69
Recommendation: UNDERPERFORM

Date: 21 February 2017
Share Price at the time: $11.80
Target Price = $10.81
Recommendation: UNDERPERFORM

Date: 22 August 2017
Share Price at the time: $14.48
Target Price = $12.80
Recommendation: UNDERPERFORM


That so-called professionals can get things so incredibly wrong (and they routinely do) is nothing short of laughable.


And if you ever read Macquarie research reports, at the back of each of them is something called the "Macquarie Quant View", which looks like an incredibly high-brow and sophisticated valuation framework, including the use of some seemingly-proprietary insights such as "Alpha Model Score, Quick Ratio (Worldscope), Earnings Certainty, Operating Leverage NTM, Earnings Momentum, Price Momentum, SAL Growth 5yr Historic", and the like (whatever all those things mean).

Yet despite that masquerade of some sort of unique, superior investment process and funky, whiz-bang valuation framework, it still results in something almost tripling in value after their recommendation was for it UNDERPERFORM.

Laughable.
Well, it would be if people weren't losing money because of it.