re: asset sale, page-2

re: asset sale Talking about the work GS are doing, many readers would be aware or the "buyer" rumours doing the rounds at the moment. I wont reproduce here as Sleuth6 can testify what happens if you do.

Now before greenholly or DJ1 jump down my throat, yes I only act on fact and a rumour is certainly a long way from fact, but it's always worth CONSIDERING if there is any merit to the rumour.

Now its not a secret that GS are selling the company (I presume only if the price is right) but this is being held up by the new IRR which in turn is held up by the time taken to increase flow rates.

It's like a race against time, the Directors want the best possible IRR to give GS, but the clock is running against them. Come June the Fortis debt is due and the options expire. Takeovers typically take up to 4 months.

GS have no doubt sounded out potential buyers, who would not commit until the IRR comes out - even they have to be accountable to their shareholders. However no doubt they are doing initial due diligence which is POSSIBLY where the rumours come from.

Now the directors have always had high price expectations, but I believe they are realists and will have to adjust their previous expectations. They have 2 choices, proceed with the path taken when they employed GS, or try to finance the debt & try to get SH approval to roll the options.

For a many reasons I wont go into here, I believe they'll take option 1
If that's the case they'll need to release the IRR & properly put it on the market very soon so its all over by June. Maybe the IRR will come out before flows are at their max potential. As I said, a potential buyer, whether friendly or hostile cannot really act until the IRR comes out & they know what's for sale. When it does come out things might happen quickly!

Marion would need to make sure its big shareholders are kept informed. (they can do this, these holders just cannot add to their position if they know unreleased information) These people/companies would need to be kept on side to safe guard against a hostile bid. (another potential source for the rumours)

This is all purely speculation, but its always worth considering all possibilities.