re: bfs due monday , page-23

re: shakers "MBL calling copper sub $2 ??? Brave call and most probably wrong. Many analysts calling for 5-6 in the short term. See below commentary from Invest4 Profit.
Personally, if we see US2.50/lb id be taking same major long positions in the red metal and at that cu price Roseby is a major money spinner."

Hot Lead: You're comparing Invest4Profit analysis based on vague subjective figures with MacBank? What analysts are calling for 5-6 in short term?? CSFB, MorganStan, UBS, ABN, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche etc etc tipping a range from 3.83 to 2.25/lb for 2007/2008.

I'm as bullish as anyone on URL but we have to take a realistic view on things. The blurb you quoted is based on extremely superficial analysis and some pretty far fetched logic. If that was the consensus view then forward contracts would begin to reflect these expectations. LME copper spot and 3 month forwards hardly show any change,and longer term than that are decreasing.

I still think URL is a good buy, but the real downside risk is the BFS may not show the super profitability that HC'ers expect given consensus copper forecasts and the need to be realistic and conservative for BFS purposes.

Looking at URL from an overall perspective the tenements yet to be converted to reserves hold significant upside, and that may or may not be recognised by the market until the drilling results firm up.

I will hold for the upside. ;)