While you analysis is sound based on your assumptions, half, maybe more of the 1 mill tonne spod production will be allocated to PLS's mid or
downstream product production.
Based on current chem prices, mid/downstream product would be selling for US$9kpt, with production costs at ~US$2.7kpt
Maybe as offtakes come up for renewal, they are either canned, and thus, those tonnes pivot to mid/downstream product deliveries for US & EU, or all future offtakes to both new and existing customers are for mid/downstream product only.
On that last note, shipping 250kt of midstream product, with a gross margin of US$6,300 make perfect sense to me, in that I expect most of global spod production will flow to integrated projects, and thus, forming a stronger and more resilient part of the supply chain. That's what need to happen, allowing a much smoother transition to the new tech,
If spod prices rise to $US2,300pt, prices of midstream and chem products would rise inline with the spod prices. Nonetheless, I don't think it will matter all that much, because as said, most spod will be priced by many as just an input cost for production of mid/downstream product.
Re: Good news & Bad news, page-54
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