Share
for NZX, in response to a post by ASX's HC, Graly.
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Thanks Graly
I have been following Xero since its asx listing.
Imo, when smart money like Thiel and Matrix put n their money (after about 20 of their analysts have done the due diligence), they expect 10x - 20x (1000% to 2000%) profit, over 3 to 5 years period.
Thiel/Valar
- 3 years ago @NZ$1.45 ---> NZ$27, +1700%
Thiel & Matrxi
- 1 year ago @NZ$6 -------> NZ$27, +350%
Thiel/Matrix
- Oct 13, @$18 ------> $100 to $300, in 3-5 years?
Competitors' M.Cap, in US$ , billions:
Intuit I - $19.6
Sage S - $ 5.4
MYOB(est) M - $ 1.0
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Total $ 26B
Xero's MC will be bigger than the three I,S,M, combined,
one day.
$26B/128m sh
= US$203 per share, one day
(MATRIX & Thiel are backing Xero, but not Intuit, SAGE or MYOB. That speaks volumes)
Enjoy the ride!
DYOR
re
Xero "hasn't even scratched the surface" of the market,
...
there are another 21 million that currently use pen and paper or spreadsheets, and he believes many of them could reasonably be expected to make the switch to low-cost, cloud-based accounting software.
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Great expectations for Xero
TOM PULLAR-STRECKER
Last updated 05:00 19/10/2013
Some New Zealanders might be the last to believe it, but overseas analysts and investors are convinced the country really could have a stellar success on its hands in cloud-software firm Xero.
…………
United States investors picked up $147m of the new shares. One of the buyers was US investment firm Matrix Capital Management, which has invested billions in tech firms over its 36-year history. Its successes include being an early investor in Apple Computers.
Xero faces bigger and more established competition in each of its target markets: MYOB in New Zealand and Australia, Sage in Britain (worth £3.5b (NZ$6.68b)) and Intuit in the US, worth US$19.6b (NZ$23.17), all of which are also putting their accounting software online.
SAP But David Goel, a managing member of Matrix, reckons Xero is emerging as the "definitive software platform for small business worldwide". That's a huge claim. But among Xero's 600 staff are a growing number of executives who have moved to the company from the world's biggest technology companies, persuaded by the opportunity.
Two of them are Scottish-born chief revenue officer Stuart McLean, who previously ran Google's enterprise software business in Australia and New Zealand, and general manager of marketing Jonathan Allan, a former vice-president of German software giant in the Asia-Pacific.
Xero "hasn't even scratched the surface" of the market, McLean says, comparing the potential to the area of a table and its current business as a dollar coin.
McLean says there are 4 million businesses in the US that have made an upfront investment in Intuit's popular Quickbooks packaged software to do their accounts.
But there are another 21 million that currently use pen and paper or spreadsheets, and he believes many of them could reasonably be expected to make the switch to low-cost, cloud-based accounting software.
Xero, too, sees opportunities well beyond its current areas of focus, accounting and payroll.
Allan says Xero is essentially following the same growth trajectory as another of his former employers, Salesforce.com, the US pioneer of online customer relationship management software, which is now worth US$31.5b on the New York Stock Exchange.
As Xero rents its software online, its revenue will keep building, he says.
"We don't land $1 million deals. We land a $50 per-month subscription, but it is going to last perhaps 15 years."
………
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9302121/Great-expectations-for-Xero
MATRIX
http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/matrix-capital-management-company-llc-755364
hold Goolgle, Amzon, Facebook, WOrflow,
all smart SaaS or Cloud-based giants or start-ups
