KDR (ASX) Re KDR Chart

i just entered kdr for the first time at 1.01 yesterday. if i was using the charts i would have waited to see if it held 1.00 and if it broke down through that i would have aimed for 75c-80c as an entry point.

but the reality is that regardless of whether it holds 1.00 over the next month, there are a number of catalysts coming over the next 1-3 months. the feasability study is the key catalyst, as well as clarity from the sqm takeover to enable forward progress. lithium prices are stable looking forward and supply is lagging projections across almost every company i know in the industry, for all of spod, brine and conversion.

once the feasability study is out, further offtakes anz financing are announced and and the FID is done, then we have a clear definite path to production.

at that point, the supply-demand / pricing dynamics are not a major factor in terms of the viability of kdr because it will be one of the lowest cost lioh producers with a long mine life in the optimal geographic location ie a stable pro mining govt with well established infrastructure for both mine and transport and the conversion plant, and close to shipping ports which are optimally positioned closed to china which is the biggest customer going forward.

even established low cost producers such as ORE in argentina hve their political issues as evidenced by the trading halt placed yesterday in the context of rising export mining taxes by a govt in crisis with a devalued peso and debt defaults. likewise the chilean govt has been causing problems for chilean lithium miners with rising taxes/ royalties etc. GXY will face these same geopolitical/ tax issues with SDV. also both olaroz (ore) and sdv (gxy) are in less optimal remote locations in twrms of the logistical complexity and cost of shipping to china. they are ok for USA and europe however.

so bottom line thesis for me is that this company looks below its full market cap value based on when the mine is fully operational even allowing for heavy discounting in the cash flows and conservative output/ forex/ cost/ price estimates.
i have taken a modest position now and then will add further if i get the opportunity around 80c. then ill wait for the multiple catalysts for a rerate over the next 6-12mo ths before expecting a major sp turnaround, however the plan is to hold for 3-5 years if possible and if the story remains intact at which point there will be a full capacity hard rock mine, lioh conversion facility and the demand side will have demonstrated strong cagr to support the supply side expansion thus disproving the 3-5 year bear thesis.

just sharing my strategy for what its worth.