re:Lithium demand surge, page-1174

PLS is heavily shorted because its still considered a "high risk" stock. Its in the materials sector which is battered by the current expectation of lower world economic growth. The subsector Lithium represents emerging technological change and new breakthroughs are occurring all the time (although Lithium maintains as the raw material of choice for batteries).

The MSCI All Countries World Index has been battered back from $100T to some $70T and below during 2018 AND the Chinese price of Battery Grade Lithium has fallen by half. At a macro level we're getting smashed from all directions BUT at a micro level PLS is powering from great to greater.

The only thing certain is change and these "risk off" bear times will change too.

Lithium maintains due to it being the lightest metal with the highest energy density. Now we have reports Lithium will be preferred for ESSs and also have a Lithium Air battery breakthrough. Lithium as the Anode and Oxygen as the Cathode, it has a battery weight of 60kgs rather than 600kgs. I imagine this is due to the need for less Nickel and Copper.

It cancels any advantages of Zinc Air rechargeability and Fluoride Ion recent breakthroughs, with range and charge. By the time Solid State batteries achieve commercial state, Lithium Air may well cancel them too.

It would seem Lithium Ion will rule for the next 5 to 10 years and any replacement will still be Lithium based.

The Lithium content accounts for 2% of the battery cost now. This will increase to upwards of 8% by the time battery costs get down to $50 per KwH. Perhaps 20% with Lithium Air batteries costing possibly 10% of current cost. Although battery grade Lithium cost halved in 2018, so perhaps halve those estimates.

I feel this is important because at current estimates, if the worlds output of 70m + units pa of motor vehicles were to be replaced by EVs, then at current estimates, that there will be only some 51 years of Lithium supply (although I expect some breakthrough in seawater yielding production). Accordingly, recycling Lithium will become paramount. If not only for supply but for waste disposal. Recycling costs are high and the only way for them to reach commerciality, is through increase in pricing for Lithium itself.

Currently, LiOH for long range batteries is Oz hard rock's comparative advantage and perhaps for the next 5 to 10 years but that will change and we'll have to compete openly with Brines. Demand will dictate and both will succeed.

A look at the Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas at the moment reveals some insights into the electric future. Hover drones for humans? The open propellers seemed a bit dodgy but the concept combined with self driving autonomy, begins the dream of flying cars. Your only work will be selecting destination and maybe appropriate infotainment.

The current problem is that home ESS's are generally 5, 10 or 15KwH batteries. Whereas EVs are upwards of 100KwH batteries. We pack our rooftops with solar panels which provides sufficient power while the sun is shining. The ESS serves to provide power when the sun is away. How do you charge your car at night, given ESS limits and EV requirements?

It would seem we still need Ol' King Coal. How do we say goodbye to OKC? Each suburb gets a version of their own Hornsdale Power Reserve with power supplied by alternative energy sources?

Maybe buy 2 EVs ... or EVs will dominate and a Uber style autonomous system will takeover? Your credit facility in Iphone or the like, is scanned when you enter and close the door and a charge is debited when you exit, much like Amazon's current grocery shopping innovation. No more DUI 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY

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