Whenever I get too desperate of the current prices I revisit my investment reasoning for Lithium.
Today: VOLUME 1. - General demand for Lithium
Thesis: Exponential growth in Lithium demand due to its use in EV batteries. (Extra demand possible due to battery use in energy storage)
Reality check on demand:
Are EV sales growing? (Initial assumption 40%YoY growth implying a doubling of sales every two years)
Total EV sales worldwide 2017: 1.2M
Total EV sales worldwide 2018: likely around 2.0 M (>60% YoY growth)
China and US markets on track for 70-80% YoY growth. In several months even sustaining that growth in overall shrinking car market.
Europe YoY EV sales growth likely only <20% due to specific European topics. I am still bullish about 2019 with Tesla and several volume models arriving to the market and German carmakers finally pushing towards EV.
Additional demand growth factors:
Conclusion: Demand due to EV sales exceeds my initial optimistic assumption by far.
- Commercial transport (Trucks, buses, ferries, delivery Vans) are seeing a push towards electrification.
- Sales growth is mainly towards pure BEV and not to hybrids. That results in a larger average battery size.
- Average battery size on pure EV is increasing too.
On the energy storage side it is harder to get good numbers. I would appreciate any help to get better data input. Anecdotal evidence from solar installers and some light house projects (Tesla in AUS and Tesla gas peaker replacement in California) indicate a very fast growing demand on that front.
While it seems clear that Li-Ion is the best battery chemistry for cars, I do not have the same confidence for energy storage. I think Li-Ion is getting a head start in that sector due to the availability of Li-Ion batteries and their falling cost due to the cumulative volume of batteries produced. Long term (past 2025) another battery chemistry might take over a bigger part of the storage market.
My outlook on total demand for the next 10 years is extremely bullish.
Whenever I get too desperate of the current prices I revisit my...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 2,219 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Add PLS (ASX) to my watchlist
 (20min delay)
|
|||||
|
Last
$3.15 |
Change
0.040(1.29%) |
Mkt cap ! $9.480B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $3.16 | $3.18 | $3.12 | $71.90M | 22.82M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 112482 | $3.15 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $3.16 | 320783 | 6 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 25/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| PLS (ASX) Chart |