Re :MLM, page-64

The Quartly is where it all will be 28/4/2017. End of this month and into May. Strap yourself in.


An employee operates a loader to store aluminium ingots at the foundry shop of the Rusal Khakassia aluminium smelter outside the Siberian town of Sayanogorsk, Russia, March 15, 2017.

• LME/ShFE arbitrage: http://tmsnrt.rs/2oQ5nm2
• China manufacturing expands, but at a slower pace
• Coming up: U.S. ISM manufacturing survey at 1400 GMT

(Recasts, adds comment, changes dateline from Melbourne)

Aluminium held firm on Monday near the 28-month high seen last week on expectations of a tighter market, but rising prices are likely to mean producers restart capacity and fill any gap between supply and demand.

Benchmark aluminium CMAL3 on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.5 percent at $1,952 a tonne at 1003 GMT. Last week the metal used widely in transport and packaging rose to $1,981, its highest since Dec 2014.

"We've got the broader rally in commodities, which has been playing out for a while now. Specifically for aluminium there is talk about capacity cuts in China because of environmental concerns," said Bernstein analyst Paul Gait. "The rally may run for a little longer, but historically we've seen as the price goes up, profitability rises and so does supply."

CHINA ALUMINIUM: China early last month ordered steel and aluminium producers in 28 cities to slash output during the winter months in a bid to curb noxious smog. China is the world's largest aluminium producer.

ALUMINIUM STOCKS: Focus on falling stocks of aluminium in LME approved warehouses, which at nearly 1.9 million tonnes are down nearly 20 percent since mid-January. Cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for delivery -- at 46 percent are also a concern for those wanting to trade on the LME. MALSTX-TOTAL

VOLUMES: Trading volumes thin overall due to Chinese holidays on Monday and Tuesday.

CHINA MANUFACTURING: Some pressure on base metals after data showed activity at China's factories expanded for a ninth straight month in March but at a softer pace as new export orders slowed. That has raised questions about whether a recent pickup in global demand is losing steam.

PRICES: Copper CMCU3 was up 0.2 percent at $5,846 a tonne, zinc CMZN3 was down 0.5 percent at $2,757, lead CMPB3 fell 1.3 percent to $2,309, tin CMSN3 lost 0.8 percent to $20,005 and nickel CMNI3 slipped 0.4 percent to $9,990.

LEAD: Some concern cited about supplies on the LME due to two large holdings -- between 30 and 39 percent -- of warrants.

COPPER: The copper market is likely to see a small shortage as early as this year because of a lack of new supply and the removal of up to 800,000 tonnes over the past 18 months in response to modest prices, Rio Tinto's copper and diamonds chief will say on Tuesday. COMMODITYPOLL01

CHILE: Top mining executives gather in Santiago for the CESCO/CRU copper conference to discuss copper's fundamentals. Sources say the mood is more optimistic than last year when the event was preceded by prices falling to 6-1/2 year lows.