re: panic sellers?, page-22

re: panic sellers? Craig your analysis is relevant.

AVL will continue to make new highs for the next six months. No doubt with pull backs after each surge as you indicated often happens.
A trebling of present share price by years end is a prediction that could be well argued.

Yestedays action was a classic case of scare & dump technique.

Institution needs to increase rate of accumulation so seizes opportunity of some sort of rumour or occurrence
in Congo as a scare factor then --
Dumps a moderate parcel of shares on market at once, trigger stop losses which sends price further south, brings out nervous nellies who sell in panic, herd instinct takes on and more sellers follow.
Would not even be surprised if a broker or two didn't add to the selling by phoning clients indicating the "scare factor" and suggesting they take profits.

Meanwhile institution behind the dump accumulates over a million shares - with little or no competion in buying side - at prices lower than could be normally expected.
Nice work? For a relatively small dump!

If correct about a scare & dump by institution or other what would they do today?

Why they would look at buy/sell before and as market opens.
The game is to dump again to bring early SP price down.

Then they would spend the rest of the day collecting as many shares as can.
Up to about 60 cents.

At 60 cents the herd might run again and force price up even more. Perhaps unlikely?

Today institution will endeavour to keep share price low and continue to accumulate.
Private buyers are usually thin on the ground so might take a while for institution to work off any selling by gradually moving price to pre determined limit.

Following is a hypothisis of possible market action today based on the above assumption.---------

Predicting today is best done with a coin.

However we might try.

So---
1. Weak opening. (institution dumps small holding of shares to start market at lower level to bring out more nervous nellies and stop losses who have just discovered drop in yesterdays action)
2. Sellers soaked up steadily - without forcing SP up too quickly.
3. Large turnover.
4. SP to end day at high 50's.

My guess based on perceived manipulated market.

But tossing the coin ------?

Cheers

NT