Scandium International Mining Corp is a US outfit operating the...

Scandium International Mining Corp is a US outfit operating the Nyngan Scandium Project in NSW. It is a Sc pure play.
Its DFS (2018) gave the following info:
1. Sc price of USD2,000 per kg.
2. Sc oxide production of 98-99.9% purity.
3. Approx. 73,000 tpy nameplate.
4. Reserves grade of 409g/T.
4. Recovery approx. 84%.

Comparing to ARL’s Sc resources, Kalpini and Black Range are not Sc pure plays. They are polymetallic plays with Ni and Co resources as well.
1. Assuming the same Sc price of USD2,000 per kg.
2. SMM’s Sc oxide production at 99.9% purity.
3. Assuming that the nameplate optionality increase from 3.5MT to 4.0MT is fully Sc-related, giving 500,000 tpy Sc resource production. That’s 7x Nyingan’s.
4. Assuming reserve grade of 60g/T. Nyingan is now 7x ARL’s. Therefore, (3) and (4) even out for both companies. They are now on a level playing field.
5. Assuming recovery rate is also approx 84% because SMM has the tech and experience.

This is getting unreal, even for my optimistic outlook.
Bearing in mind that this is a very rough comparison, so the accurate figures could be way out.

Nyingan’s DFS stated an annual EBITDA of USD49.5M, or approx. AUD75M.
Its payback period is 3.3 years.

USD49.5M divided by 32,000 Tpa Ni/Co = USD1,546.
AUD75M pa divided by 32,000 Tpa Ni/Co = AUD2,343.
That’s how much cheaper ARL’s Ni/Co net production cost per ton after byproduct credit will become because of the Sc income.

If this scenario eventuates, then even Indonesia’s Ni cost of production cannot compete with ARL’s.

Furthermore, this comparison hasn’t accounted for the additional Ni/Co that will be produced from the 500,000T in nameplate increase.