I personally think (dilution aside) $2 per share is very reasonable upon signing of binding agreements. Why?
Because it got to this level before just on the nickel price movements which is honestly delusional considering ARL is not mining anything and the price has very little impact at this stage of the game. That was during a nickel squeeze which obviously was not going to remain until 2028.
Meanwhile if the Japanese sign on the dotted line it's something very concrete with a ton of implications and markets are very forward looking. There will be an expectation that the project is going ahead and will go ahead well considering the technical expertise of sumitomo and deep access to capital markets. And that would get priced in.
Ontop of that, shares are increasingly hard to come by. I have been locking up parcels all week and over the last 2 days locked up close to another 20k worth. I do not intend to sell anything until nameplate at the bare minimum.
Above is not financial advice and just a personal opinion
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