My math is probs wrong on this cause I'm very tired but off the...

My math is probs wrong on this cause I'm very tired but off the top of my head, the 5b figure is only the present value if we were to get paid out for it now (plus a premium for the tier 1 nature).

It discounts the cashflow which is much much higher over the life of the project and there are a lot of variables to take into account like interest rates, nickel/cobalt prices long term.

It's supposed to be a very conservative figure, not indicative of the full potential of the project under various scenarios or if one just wanted to hold it long term.

800m ebitda for 40 years = $32 billion ebitda (and what % does ARL keep) plus consider ARL will be reinvesting profits after 3.1 years give or take so what's the real discount rate?

If it was kept as simple as possible and the Japanese get 50%, we share 50% of funding and they hook us up with a good low interest rate Japanese bank loan (100% debt) it would be 400m ebitda for 40 years. Potentially longer cause we all know about the expansion potential, or even output expansion potential. That's 16 billion ebitda. Then what's happening with tax? Seems the government is looking to help out nickel miners

As you can see there are just so many variables and the joke is that models are very frequently wrong. This is why accountants go for super conservative valuations to try and limit that downside.

I took a look at various scenarios a while ago and determined that in almost every scenario if a deal is closed, ARL will make market beating returns for many years, therefore for me it made it good. There are also crazy 100 bagger blue sky scenarios as well as the conservative ones where we get a simple buyout, or a pretty dilutive deal.

Not financial advice DYOR and calcs.