I am not worried by a 49% JC 51% ARL split to be honest. There is a very attractive side to this being the only dilution. That means we would have a MC of around 200-250m and then with such strong partners, be on track to make 400m ebitda a year. For 40 years. With the possibility of expanding output since we have another 40 years of mine life waiting in the wings.
That's a scenario where we get close to 100 bags as an example. Can't see them getting more than 49% though for political reasons short of a complete buyout (which would be something like 5b + a premium for the tier 1 nature of the assets) which is also attractive since it's cash right now. We're currently at just under 150m MC so do the math on that for a shorter term return. Also pretty insane.
It's fun to speculate and in all honesty until later we don't know how this will pan out but we are beating the market if a deal is struck.
Not financial advice.
I am not worried by a 49% JC 51% ARL split to be honest. There...
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Last
62.0¢ |
Change
0.010(1.64%) |
Mkt cap ! $123.7M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 59.5¢ | 62.0¢ | 59.5¢ | $107.2K | 177.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 36251 | 59.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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| 62.0¢ | 50537 | 4 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 24/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
62.0¢ |
Change
0.010 ( 1.64 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| 59.5¢ | 62.0¢ | 59.5¢ | 47886 | ||
| Last updated 15.58pm 24/05/2024 ? | |||||
| ARL (ASX) Chart |