IMU (ASX) Re:Re:Charts:Imugene

Originally posted by fourdollars: ↑

IMU has been remiss in HerVaxx reporting. The trial started in Aug-2017 and was to have recruited 68 patients. After over three years, it only recruited 27. We got no indication that the trial was so far behind schedule.

Of those 27, only 14 were given Her-Vaxx. So this $500m+ company is valued on the apparent benefit on average of the 14 patients given Her-Vaxx vs those that weren't. 14 is not a sample size on which any regulatory authority can give permission to a company to market a drug.

By the company's own admission, its most advanced trial (Her-Vaxx) will take until end 2021 just to get to the 34 patients that the IDMC has recommended. This still won't be enough to pass regulatory hurdles.

There is no reporting on the efficacy of any of its other drugs in sight. There is no drug approval in sight. There is no revenue in sight. Given its R&D program, the company cannot get to revenue even with its current cash reserves.

So all anyone with IMU shares has is a lottery ticket to a "Big Pharma" licensing deal or acquisition of one or more of its pipeline drugs.

The cheer squad on this site continue to roll out numbers of other takeovers or licensing deals and then convert this into a multi-billion dollar valuation for IMU. Not one of those deals has been done with a company that has dosed just 14 patients with its products, yet that is the "beautiful data" the company has been touting and on which the cheer squad rely.

So, its not clear why anyone believes the SP will rise steadily. It had its run based on the reporting of 14 patients - which was positive but not statistically significant. (As an aside, if the company had failed to report on its lack of progress with HER-Vaxx, gotten to the end of its original 3-year trial plan with less than 50% recruited and not received positive feedback from the IDMC, I think you'd currently be looking at a sub-1c SP).

The SP will jump significantly if a big pharma deal comes along. Will it come? When will it come? are question no one on this site can answer. Do you want to be holding a ticket in the lottery in case it does come - its up to you - but at least understand that that is what you have.

And before the cheer squad abuses me again, save it. Its not me you need to convince. Its all those nameless, faceless, unidentifiable sellers that have taken the SP from 14c to 10.5c as each of them apply their personal risk appetite to the information presented above - which most of them know, but don't post about on HC.

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thanks for taking time to reply.
I am aware now this is the chart thread. Ill try and find a Her-Vaxx thread.

There is this however..
"I am excited that the interim analysis favoured the survival outcome for HER-Vaxx and the IDMC suggested to shorten the study by lowering the number of patients. This data represents a clinical proof-of-concept for HER-Vaxx and supports our B-cell activating immunotherapy platform." {announcement Nov 2, quoting CEO LC}