Monthly: Monday see's us starting a new monthly bar, January's being now locked in. This helps us get some perspective. After each decent bull run (green below) there is a few bars of consolidation and distribution (orange below), keeping in mind the 'rona extended last years by 3 or 4 bars (red). Jan was the 2nd lowest volume for the last 12 months - we should start printing some green volume bars from here. Nothing overly exciting on this chart except that it shows our long term bull trend. As of Monday our support zone around 10.5 is now into its third monthly bar and hasn't faltered, it's a very solid level. Despite the many attempts to break through it Buyers keep reloading at these levels and will continue to do so . Weekly: Nothing overly exciting here either. Looking at the bottoms of the candles for the last couple of weeks we see that the price isn't staying on the low side of the range for long. Buyers are taking advantage leaving wicks behind each week, it suggests that in general money would rather be in than out over the weekend. With trade opening here before the rest of the world, it could be a minor indication that the buyers are international, not wanting to risk a Monday AM drop while asleep. Just speculation though. I am however convinced that a bigger shark is accumulating. We have closed under the 38.2% again and our green w5 has turned down. I would expect the w5 to be repulsed up in the next couple of bars due to the angle of the yellow e21. The w5 and e21 don't like to be separated from each other for too long (read - price always comes back to the e21). If we are still mucking around at this level when the e21 gets to our support zone of 10-10.5, this alone could be a catalyst for a massive upside breakout without any news - that would be one tight spring by then. For my part on this chart I am happy as long as we don't see a close under 10.0c on the weekly, anything else is bullish, including now.
Daily: What has surprised me most on this chart was the lack of follow through on that large bullish divergence seen at A. We got a little run higher but nothing exciting, it was quite muted. I am confident the green w5 will bounce of the cyan e55 which should also see the e21 turn back to a positive slope. The e55 is a great support and resistance MA, on par with the e21 and s200. As the e55 continues to rise I would expect to see the price also make higher lows as it follows along. Looking exclusively at the candles and fibs, it almost appears that the price wants to retest the 50% at 0.97 however I don't expect to see it. The longer a price stays in a given range the more noise you get. Technicals for ranging and for trending are quite different, and I focus primarily on trending. I suspect our resident traders have done quiet well this month if they were willing to risk their parcels being out for short periods. Longer term here is bullish, short term is starting to get messy so lets call it flat. Next week looks a little boring to me from this chart. Boring is good if it contributes to tightening the spring. When it pops it will do so with gusto Hourly: Surprised and a little disappointed that the original MA signal didn't execute as per normal expectations. I would have expected to see at least a retest of 14 if not new highs all together by now, rather than the pathetic little pop to 12.5 we saw. Having said that, the signal is still in play. We are looking for a fresh cross of the green w5 above the red e200 followed with a bounce. We don't want to see the blue e100 cross under the red e200.
Overall I can sum up with the following: Bullish but I'm over the range we are stuck in
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