AL3 17.2% 17.0¢ aml3d limited

Appreciate your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic here...How...

  1. 162 Posts.
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    Appreciate your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic here...

    How can you say that management is keeping the market updated?

    Take a look at 3DA - a competitor that's capped at $77M, compared to AL3's $21M. Indeed, 3DA's share price has fallen over the past month - however the entire market is down. So its share price has been another casualty of the market. For if the market didn't fall overall, 3DA was consolidating for over a year and worth ~$100M.

    Now compare that to AL3...

    AL3 has been in a DOWNTREND for over a year...

    Indeed, it announced positive material news (ie. Beoing, Lightforce etc) from time to time. But compare the 3DA announcements to AL3. 3DA has kept shareholders engaged and in the loop, with multiple investor webinars (Amaero to participate in a 'Meet the CEO and ED' briefings), investor presentations, management letters, and updates on contracts (Amaero makes strong progress on key projects).

    What has Al3's management team done?

    Nothing...

    Let the share price slide for over a year and only updated shareholders when there's material/concrete news to announce. It's quarterly updates regurgitate what happened during the past quarter. Technically, that's what a company is supposed to do. But this isn't our first rodeo. The good companies provide an update on what to look forwards to in the foreseeable future and the plan of a attack.

    Also disagree strongly that it's better to have a no-name research company prepare a PAID report, compared to an investor preso. Agree that preso's are often a summarised version of what's happening. But disagree that they can't say much - it's another market update. Certainly an update on how all the contracts are progressing wouldn't hurt the share price.

    Management have their pants down and are pissing on the share price...

    A positive note...We read the analyst report and thought it was quite good. That said, they are forecasting FY22 (this year) and FY23 to be negative free cash flow years and revenue really starting to build later this decade. Who wants to wait 5-7 years? That said, they are also forecasting revenue to building into FY23 so that's a positive. Surprised to see they didn't show the EV or market cap comparison for the competitor analysis.

    Nevertheless, the next preso/shareholder letter will probably come mid-next month or timing with the AGM.

    With Perennial overhanging the share price (we estimate that they have ~5M remaining), this could go to 10c unfortunately. Moreover, in the next quarterly which will be underwhelming (assuming its copy and paste of the last quarters announcements as history suggests and provides no forward detail or encouragement), the cash at bank figure will likely show that the company needs to raise capital early next year.

    We wonder if this report was generated for the reason to raise capital?

    Something we agree on@Ricmond88, is that Perennial's selling offers a good buying opportunity. The share price has to turn around one day or the company goes broke; however it's concerning managements reluctance to engage with the market. A simple investor webinar could help a lot.

    And regarding your comment that "The other alternative is to pay a pump site, all that does is spend shareholder money to give Perennial an easy out. I would rather see the share price rise slower, but on fundamentals when trials start converting to contracts."

    STRONGLY disagree - we want Perennial to exit ASAP so there's no more overhanging selling pressure of the share price.

    It's good to accumulate more down here and there's a strong possibility of making good money buying down here from Perennial, especially if there's a lightforce deal early next year as we expect.

    But aren't management sick of seeing the share price fall?

    Management should speak to a promoter or study 3DA's market updates and do something different. Engaging with share holders is a good start.

    When's enough, enough.

    To your first million,
    -Trading For Millions.
 
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Last
17.0¢
Change
0.025(17.2%)
Mkt cap ! $60.33M
Open High Low Value Volume
13.5¢ 17.5¢ 13.5¢ $1.437M 9.142M

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Price($) Vol. No.
17.5¢ 700094 11
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