Hi Rifici
As another long-term holder I will try and address your list of items working against BRT
* High AUD cf USD
Currencies are all relative. The AUD/USD exchange rate has traded in a band over the last 6 months. This trend looks like continuing, with a possible slight appreciation of the AUD given interest rate differentials. I don’t think this will have a significant impact on earnings, given sales of BRT products to the US have only commenced. In addition, the estimates for 2008 sales have presumably been based on a AUD/USD rate similar to where we are now
* Very small acquisitions and relatively new companies that are going to need a lot of work to really increase their revenue and profitability
I didn’t think Enertec and Reveal are new companies… and Toyway has been around for 30 years. They have appointed a COO to look after integration. I must add, all these companies were bought reasonably cheaply too
* High risk of losing staff/expertise with these recent acquisitions
Happens with all acquisitions, hence why providing BRT equity in all these acquisitions is a good formula. In addition, I think Jones Lee and Jeff Brendt have entered into long-term contracts with BRT???
* A lot of capital raising recently by BRT recently under 10c and even at 15c
Not sure how this is working against the company. Given they are just embarking on producing a decent revenue stream raisings are part of the beast. The bright side is that the one done at 15c was 80% higher than the one done 3 months earlier. Agree that short-term it wont impact positively on the share price as there will be people looking for profits. But once the dust settles on this, it should be a sustained movement upwards
* BRT is a relatively new company with reasonably inexperienced staff in the Perth office
New company.. but experienced people. (I cant speak on the experience of the receptionist in the Perth office though)
* Expectation of recession in the US which will decrease spending in US and its negative flow-on effects into other countries
Yep, consumer spending is the driver of most modern western economies… but being in the toy industry is what may infact help BRT. Toys have been shown to be the last item that families cross off their discretionary spending lists during economic downturns. Parents/Grandparents will forego purchasing items for themselves to purchase for kids
* Manufacturing concerns of products coming out of China
IMO, and I have posted this before, the events in China regarding product recalls etc will be really good for the industry in the long-term. From what I can gather BRT, and in particular Enertec, are very very safety concious. With 80%-90% of toys made in China, consumers don’t really have a choice….
* I do believe if everything goes smoothly, BRT has massive potential
Couldn’t agree with you more on that one!
Of course, nothing is certain until it happens.. and that is why BRT is at 15c and not at $1. But for me, so far, im happy with what they have done and the manner they are going about things, so im happy to be patient and be on board for when the market wakes up and realizes what they have here. It may very well take some decent revenues for that to happen, and that’s fine with me. Its going to be a BIG 2008 for these guys as they get the first products of LGB and Hummer out, having the marshmallow products flowing through the books, plus also presumably ramped up sales of the Memotoy range.
All good from where I sit.
cheers
Livas1
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