Re:shareprice, page-1185

Evening Kicks

I have resisted any comments on the forum since the quarterly, primarily because it ‘s not my style to seek any recognition for a single right call. I had some thoughts post the release of the quarterly, but we can share those heading into the next quarterly. Of course, the December quarterly is what I consider as the ‘blind’ quarter. In terms of any horizontal analysis, we have no financial reports providing inventory levels and Revenue / receivable levels to add certainty to any read of the situation. Above all, the December quarterly is all about early traction with the new product ‘Boosts’. The level of early market adoption is privy only to Nuheara, so any effort on our part would constitute nothing more than a guess.

I have a nice conspiracy theory to share regarding the recent fall to 5.6 c and the subsequent surge to 12 c and of course, the same day retrace to below 9c.

i have held some real quality stocks over the last two years which have been subjected to endless ‘shorting’. In my case, fortunately, fundamentals have won the day eventually in all cases, but this after serious frustration on my part. Frustration breeds many questions which, with Mr Market in control, in many cases remain unanswered.

I have a theory which could explain many of the non-sensical SP movements up and down.

When our expectations of a higher SP are dented for periods, we blame the Bots. I always try to consider the motive. In this case, we are normally dealing with managed accumulation.

When this activity persists, quite often on low volume, you can consider this as ‘SLOW’ managed accumulation OR we can call it CHURN. Finding a motive for churn is not that easy, unless we are talking about obvious price suppression linked to some future take-over.

Now let’s look at reasons for shorting. When a stock is shorted, the motive of the shorter is clearly that they are the opinion that the performance of a Company is overstated or prevailing headwinds will undermine future performance. So a fund shorts a share to the extent of say, 5 percent of the register. They then wait for the story to unfold. As it unfolds, they may regulate their level of shorting. For want of better word, let’s call it ‘static’ shorting. Motive quite clear.

But then, you quite often get ‘active’ shorting where the graphs on www.shortman look like a swa tooth over an extended period. Defining the motive in such a case is they are working the ‘shorts’ on a say, weekly basis, terminating one ‘short’ contract and immediately replacing it with another. One would only do this if this resulted in a higher gain, and I guess that could be possible. In other words, working it for an extension in the gain.

Before, I expand on where this going, just one further observation. In cases, where significant shorting is concerned, I have witnessed many examples of where the primary shorter happened to be a substantial shareholder of the Company at the outset. Logically, this de-risks either holding a substantial position or taking a large short position. It also provides maximum flexibility to gain on two fronts, where managed SP volatility creates nett gain. If you think of the power of using algorithms to counter any influence of retail investors, that control can yield the optimum in terms of realising the financial gain either in the form of more or less share or monetary gain. 

So what has this to do with Nuheara. The shorting has essentially stopped. I am suggesting that we should not see a large shareholder as having a ‘static’ shareholding with an entry price of say 9.2 cents. Such a shareholder has to report changes in shareholding of more than 1 percent or if their holding reduces below the 5% threshold. With T+2 and power of volume control, it is easy for a major shareholder to satisfy the holding volume requirements whilst working the nett value of that holding.

When you think of the ‘motive’ for a fall to 5.6c and a rise to 12 c and an immediate retrace to 8.8 cents and 50 m shares changing hands in a single day, my read is that ‘non sensical’ price movements are a often a product of major shareholders simply working/ lowering their entry price.

A bit off subject but you may enjoy thinking it through. I become more and more convinced as I witness different cases and search for that understanding of motive. 

Anyhow, great announcement today and I patiently wait for that fundamental inflection point relating to market adoption and traction. Potential alive and well.

Rokewa