Firstly, thankyou Mont, Shamish, Palmtree, bundy375 and numberous others for your informative, passionate and at times entertaining responses.
I'm not sure if this is old news but...I went to a small cap fund manager presentation today run by Ellerston and EWC is in their top 5 holdings - thanks to some of the post here I could ask a couple of questions and during our conversation got recieved the following comments:
1.He confirmed that Ellerston (& Packer) have not unwound their position - they're long term holders (confirms Mont's view)
2. He seems more excited about PNG than Indo -
3. He reckons the trains are in Canada - reasoning (he knows) and logic they would n't be shipped to Indo coz they couldn't easily redploy them from there.
3. Seismic shoot - he said it has been recertified and there is no need to reshoot AND the reserves are even higher than reported BUT
4. EWC must take on an Indo partner and relinquish 25% of their holdings (this is what all the majors do) and all the political issues(games)/redtape EWc has faced is due to this reason. Unfortunately EWC after wasting years now starting to play by Indo's corrupt rules! - He believes EWC are very close to having that "strategic" partner.
5. Whatever EWC claim on costs or timeframes multiply by 4
6. Tokyo listing will go ahead but obviously after reg approval - leads to timeframe of next year (I guess)
7. He too was dissappointed by EWC's management's communication style (or lack of it) but hoped prices would stay down so he could load up at these levels with new investors money (his fund is only 3 months old with $20M FUM).
Overall, the fund managers view (in my opinion)made sense of many of the views (many of which are conflicting) about EWC bottom line - is now finally playing the corrupt game( which every other major has) that has to be to get things done in Indo - what makes me anxious is how the market will react when it finally becomes official i.e. taking on a strategic partner.
Thanks again everybody for your great post and I hope I have been helpful
cheers
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