re: showdown to bomber Ching, firstly, how many shares in HDR...

re: showdown to bomber Ching, firstly, how many shares in HDR does Buffett own?In fact, how many shares in any Australian company?
In his early days Buffett did speculate on Australian resource stocks but he wouldn't waste his time on HDR. This is chicken feed by his standards.

And sure, to be able to buy a stock that one would never want to sell...like Telstra after the Government's generous offer as an investment for the moms and dads.
How many of them sold when it was profitable, and how many watched tearfully as their life investment slowly vanished.
My valuation model correctly flagged TLS as massively overvalued when it was $8. I was sure it was going to fall and bought a lot of put warrants. I lost over $15k as it rose to $10. It taught me to stick to my knitting and avoid predicting short term price movements.

How many bought the mighty Enron when it was a bargain, watched huge paper profits....unstoppable.
Enrons ROE was only 4% due to the huge bogus assets on the balance sheet. Buffetts criteria would have protected you from this stock, he looks for stocks with high ROEs.

And here we have a small oil explorer with oil.
Offshore from a distant impoverished moslim country.
In water so deep you need helium.
Ching is in 800m, Banda 300m. This is shallow by oil industry standards.

In troubled political times (of course when the well begins bringing in the cash it's impossible to think of some Hussein type guy setting it alight or targeting it with a missile).
The US is actively looking to West African oil sources to decrease reliance on the middle east. Political turmoil in the mideast helps HDR.

It's a good stock mate, but like all others, there's plenty of if's and but's.
Traders don't spend all day whinging, because good traders have a plan that limits their losses, and they don't have to be watching the screen in the middle of the night, the stops are in place as they sleep.
Long termers can sleep soundly knowing that in 2 years they will be way ahead without the stress and pressure of short term fluctuations.

Perhaps up to 90% of traders lose.I would accept that.That's a helluva lot of cash to be made by the 10% with enough discipline to win.
These odds are probably correct, but 60% of the 90% hang in there in false hope.

I would also suggest that 90% or investors lose too.
The trick is to have the discipline to be in the other 10%.
Here I disagree. In the long run if you buy and hold a portfolio of quality blue chips you will perform at the market average of around 4% real return a year over the long term. 100% will be winners with a lot less stress than the traders.


A realistic profit, if you bought at 5c and didn't sell at $1.00, perhaps you are just plain greedy.Are you greedy Ching?I hope you realise your profit targets, but then, if it made $5.00, wouldn't you want it to be $10.00? I think perhaps you expect a tad much, yes?
I would prefer to use the words patient and confident, but perhaps I am infected a little by greed.