to larjones, preacherman,acturtle,alphacentauri,jo to bbm bbm:...

to larjones, preacherman,acturtle,alphacentauri,jo to bbm
bbm: Answer me this. If you bought HDR at 5 cents (as you say you did), then why didn't you sell at >$1.00 and buy back at sub 60 cents?
I am not an insider and I have no knowledge about future price movements. Since its impossible to predict short term price movements why bother incurring the taxes and costs associated with guessing?

Wouldn't you be better off that way?
Yes, but with hindsight we'd all be billionaries. If you are trying to profit from short term fluctuations in HDR you are competing with insiders who will milk you dry.

There will be a many people that are doing that exact thing that are much further ahead than the buy and hold strategy.
Over the next 5 years I predict that my buy and hold strategy will continue to outperform the frantic buying and selling strategy of the average trader after taxes & transaction costs. I doubt if many traders have enjoyed the x 10 return that longer termers have enjoyed from riding this stock from 0.045 up. Another x 10 from the current price is not impossible if HDR continues its current success rate of 5 outta 6, in the oil patch.

Each person has there own way of handling the market, so if that way is different to yours then don't go bashing everyone else because you think your the only one that is correct.
I plead self defence. After being rapped over the knuckles by dodge64, knocked for 6 by bomber, taunted by yogi and enduring 1000's of 'ha ha thon' posts, I decided to raise my bloody corpse and put up a humble defence...



to acturtle & alphacentauri & joker
You guys are correct that Buffett does not touch commodity stocks and would not touch HDR. HDR & ROC are the only stocks in my portfolio that deviate from strict Buffettology principles. I raised the esteemed name of Buffett to contrast his success with the remarkable absense of prominent, successfull rich traders. For a philosophy thats so widely followed there is very little evidence that it works and few role models. I ask the traders out there, if you went back ten years and bought and held bank stocks and blue chips instead of trading wouldn't you be better off today? Throw away those Gann books and buy some Buffett tomes.



to preacherman
What's the value of a share in HDR ? About 1.90, using conservative POSs. Depends on how much they earn doesn't it ? No. It depends on the capacity to produce future earnings. 2005 PE of 2 is possible from Ching alone based on HDRs 17000 BPD from Ching-1 Dividend they pay?More relevant is capacity to produce an acceptable return on shareholders funds. In HDR its probably zero. Those guys at woodside will be upset when you tell them this. They just paid 70c a share. But they've seen the seismics and you haven't...What you are paying for is blue sky. HDRs current shareprice barely covers cash and proven reserves. The blue sky is free.

to larjones
lrjones: It may never have occurred to you that a Bomber:can trade this right up to $5, is unlikely to lose all his money if HDR folds, can in the mean time, get out and trade a few X percenters with the profits when HDR is doing nothing.
This is nice in theory but does it work in practice? There is plenty of evidence to show it is almost impossible to predict and profit from short term price movements.