re:still in the game

With an SP in the 4's an understandable air of despondency hanging over the prospects of MYG has become evident on this forum.In this gloomy atmosphere I would think that easing off a bit and taking a broader over view is in order.(beats bickering!). Thus:

1)Deflector was purchased on 22/07/2010.The POG on that day was US $1,181.70 = AUD $1,324.00. (AUD/US 0.8919).In the previous 3 month period when negotiations were taking place the POG had been rising steadily.At the beginning of March it stood at US $1,104.30.

2)Fast forward to the present day and what we see is:
a)Since the beginning of this month an average POG of say US $1.465.00.= AUD $1,436.00. (AUD/US 1.0200 approx.)

What does this suggest? At that point in time when Deflector was being sought out as a good profit prospect the POG was lower in AUD terms than it is now.I am well aware that this comparison is, in itself, too simple.Since that time we have had the DFS and BFS and invariably projected costs have risen. But still in a FUNDAMENTAL sense not much has really changed.We had a ball game then,and despite recent events, we are still in the same ball game now.We are nowhere near as close to the back door,in a fundamental sense, as many of you may fear.

However fundamentals and current sentiment can be yards and yards apart.Bank sentiment is no less skittish than that of the average nervous punter,and we have to rely on banks to fund this project into production.The key point here was made by JG himself,when he said that we need a POG with a stable outlook to keep negotiations with the banks alive. i.e. we could live with the current GOP if there was a confident bank based perception that in all likelihood it would not go significantly lower.We can live with that,as it would mean that a mine will eventuate, but the ongoing creditor supervision and reporting requirements would be onerous.What this really all comes down to is that for the situation to get back to "business as usual" we need a lift in the GOP to say at least US $1,600.( US $1,700 would be better again).Then stability concerns, doubts, "ifs and buts" etc. would rapidly melt away.In this brave new world of the "grand experiment"...massive money printing...far reaching outcomes in the near term are possible including the direction of the POG.A substantial uplift would take the pressure off all involved.

Just a side point regarding the SP.Factor in that, contrary to superficial appearances a substantial portion of the recent buy/sell activity has been a same day, sell/buy back exercise, to lock in capital losses,and not just frightened holders jumping ship.No doubt about it...I am completely sure of myself as I should be.