WOA (ASX) Re: WOA Share Orice

Originally posted by Oatmilk1: ↑

I have posted a few times over the year or so, I think its a bit extreme to say they are appalling and disgraceful. It would be good for you to provide some context as to why you believe this, other than I bought in at $x.xx and its now 24c/share. I believe the quarterly slides have some level of manipulation as I detail below, but I will reserve judgement for another 6-12 months to see how the cards fall. My 2c worth.

1. The management do not control the share price. The last thing I want from management is to make decisions based on the daily drunken share market reaction. That is a quick way to closure.
2. There was vagueness in the quarterly slides compared with previous quarters. Revenue growth had gone from Slide 3 to 18 which does have a feel of some level of deceit. Quarterly revenue plateauing doesnt actually worry me if there's a fair explanation. Ie we are focusing our attention on the buntine protein, with projected revenue likely to be x. There has been previous quarters were there has been plateauing (Q1&2-21).
3. All the propaganda information on Slide 8 regarding the core focus on buntine is great, but what is missing (worryingly) is how much was supplied in volume and $ in Q1. Its painful that the AGM is never a webcast event to ask these kind of questions. I realise the pilot plant is not intended to make huge revenue growths, but as an owner I value demand if someone is paying for it. I dont consider tonnes supplied as valuable if you are giving it away. It also provides a peg to work from in subsequent quarters, halves and years to work on whether demand is stable, increasing etc.
4. A positive is that on Slide 8 the mention of 30-50tpa by Q3 FY23 is good news. Previously I could only see estimates of 10tpa (I may have missed some announcements).
5. Previously in Q4 there was mention of a consultancy group doing a concept study for a 10,000tpa commercial plant and in this quarter the mention is potentially having more demand. My question is going from concept to actually building something is going to cost a lot in $ and time. I cannot imagine this will be built and operational until the start of 2025. That is a long way off for holders to wait to see profitability (and the dilution cost to pay for such a plant in such an inflationary environment). It also seems a quantum leap from the pilot plant. Is there a plant to increase the pilot to atleast 5% of the commercial plant size. Jumping 500x larger seems very risky.
6. The Quarterly cashflows are fairly similar except R&D has gone up which I would account for in the buntine protein pilot plant and product manufacturing and op costs. I would be curious to know much much of this is with operating the buntine protein plant and how much is inflationary costs hurting the other parts of the business.

Without seeing discrete number I personally think they should be scaling back the DCF side of the business as its never going to be profitable. I am comfortable enough to have the oatmilk side as a break even brand awareness item with sole focus on the protein.

I will buy some more shares once there is 1) some more concrete traction or 2) there is clearly some support in the market at the price. My concern today is buying at 24c and it ends up getting to 10-15c. I actually think 40c is cheap and I cannot see the share price doubling even with any outlandish announcement at the moment so I will bide my time in the meantime. I dont think management are doing a horrendous job, its a tough job running a start up, tech company and hindsight is an easy thing and trying to also appease a sharemarket full of people that dont understand the ups and downs of technology development would be difficult.

Good luck all.

Expand

Good post.. I agree that they should focus on Oat milk and buntine protein. i think as a company with strong ESG credentials they can/have fallen into the trap of focussing too much on that in their branding / marketing and not enough on being a quality product. As a consumer i already consider Oat milk a sustainable choice - the extra sustainability that WOA adds does not influence my buying decisions so much as Aussie made / Aussie grown / taste / cost / compatibility with coffee.

Oat Up was a good brand.. Dirty Clean Food is not (for a drink) Just ask your mates if they'd prefer a glass of Dirty Clean Food or Milk Lab.

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