REA having a bear market rally?, page-4

You could be right. However, mortgage stress isn't the home owner's decision, it's the Banks. And they don't like defaults, as they too have OS interest obligations. The Australian Govt, I'm sure, will step in and 'play' with the market as they have done in the recent past. All up Building is 25% of GDP (China 29%, USA 18%). They can't afford (electorally) to let the building industry fail, but nor too the banks. How the Govt is going to challenge this dilemma will be interesting. The banks might not win, but they wont lose. Which only leaves the tax payer (again). Net result, an initial dip in REA volume (your logic and I agree), but when the mortgage stress hits (well before 4% IR), it will be business as usual.

Personally, I still think we are experiencing a 'transitional inflation', due to supply side constraints (raw materials and transportation hold ups etc), as opposed to supply side restraint (max out capacity).