I could provide an APV model but I feel it would confuse me as...

I could provide an APV model but I feel it would confuse me as much as everyone else , as an APV looks at a multitude of discount rates and cashflows based on different scenarios -
exploration cash flow
-appraisal cash flow -
development cashflow
production cash flow
debt cash flow -
exploration and appraisal tax shields cash flow
development and production tax shields cashflow
- debt tax shields cash flow,
The article states at the end "APV solves most of the uncertainty and risk issues in the valuation process, but it fails to address the volatility of oil prices properly " So to me it is better to use a simpler method even maybe simpler than IRR ie payback period on investment which is probably what most people out of an ivory tower do anyway it is not as accurate as will not take into account the cost of capital but it is proabbly more relevant in the auction room.

the interesting thing is the debt tax shields cash flow scenario
My guess is this is what HK is using and is why some analysts are incorrectly knocking HKs fundamentals
Lets say HK is running at a loss and not paying tax due to amortising as little CAPEX as possible by instead expensing most of its expenses on the P&L statement it therefore is deferring its tax liabilities to a later date and in the interim has had the use of the money it would otherwise pay in tax.
To me Floyd has some good accountants.